156 N Mackinaw Rd

Au Gres, MI 48703

$119,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-55/mo
• Annual: $-659/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-659/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (9.9% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#422 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• Au Gres-Sims School District (rural): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #376 of 760 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Arenac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arenac County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $119k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.7% in Au Gres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?