156 N Mackinaw Rd · Au Gres, MI 48703

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1950 0.34 ac lot $92/sqft · 26% below area Est $162k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. This home has been recently updated with new flooring, paint, etc! Enjoy the flexibility of having most all main level living with a bedroom, large living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Additional recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Gas water heater
• Main level living

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• RECENTLY UPDATED
• MAIN LEVEL LIVING
• METAL ROOF
• GAS WATER HEATER
• CITY WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-659/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.7% in Au Gres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#422 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• Au Gres-Sims School District (rural): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #376 of 760 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Arenac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Arenac County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $119k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,735
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -26.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
549 Detroit St	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,248 (-4%)	0mo	$215,000	$172	68
400 N Court St	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,274 (-2%)	22mo	$167,000	$131	63
529 Detroit St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,248 (-4%)	16mo	$165,000	$132	56
806 S Main St	0.71mi	2/1.5	1,394 (+8%)	1mo	$135,000	$97	51
216 N West St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,170 (-10%)	12mo	$135,000	$115	34
180 N West St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,170 (-10%)	17mo	$136,900	$117	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-22,715
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-24,018
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48703

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,743/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $109,300

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $119,000 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. This home has been recently updated with new flooring, paint, etc! Enjoy the flexibility of having most all main level living with a bedroom, large living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Additional recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

17. 2026-02-16
    listed $125,000 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. This home has been recently updated with new flooring, paint, etc! Enjoy the flexibility of having most all main level living with a bedroom, large living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Additional recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

18. 2025-08-14
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. There's flexibility for up to six bedrooms or to create more living space with the option to take down a couple of non-permanent walls in one of the downstairs bedrooms to add space to the living room. The main level offers two bedrooms, living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

19. 2025-07-23
    status Pending 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. There's flexibility for up to six bedrooms or to create more living space with the option to take down a couple of non-permanent walls in one of the downstairs bedrooms to add space to the living room. The main level offers two bedrooms, living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

20. 2025-06-27
    price $69,500 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. There's flexibility for up to six bedrooms or to create more living space with the option to take down a couple of non-permanent walls in one of the downstairs bedrooms to add space to the living room. The main level offers two bedrooms, living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

21. 2025-05-19
    price $90,000 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. There's flexibility for up to six bedrooms or to create more living space with the option to take down a couple of non-permanent walls in one of the downstairs bedrooms to add space to the living room. The main level offers two bedrooms, living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

22. 2025-05-10
    price $74,900 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. There's flexibility for up to six bedrooms or to create more living space with the option to take down a couple of non-permanent walls in one of the downstairs bedrooms to add space to the living room. The main level offers two bedrooms, living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

23. 2025-04-29
    price $80,000 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. There's flexibility for up to six bedrooms or to create more living space with the option to take down a couple of non-permanent walls in one of the downstairs bedrooms to add space to the living room. The main level offers two bedrooms, living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

24. 2025-04-21
    price $90,000 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. There's flexibility for up to six bedrooms or to create more living space with the option to take down a couple of non-permanent walls in one of the downstairs bedrooms to add space to the living room. The main level offers two bedrooms, living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

25. 2025-04-07
    listed $110,000 Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Spacious home on a large corner lot in the City of Au Gres. There's flexibility for up to six bedrooms or to create more living space with the option to take down a couple of non-permanent walls in one of the downstairs bedrooms to add space to the living room. The main level offers two bedrooms, living room, mudroom, office area, & the kitchen with a laundry area. The upstairs offers anywhere from 3 to 4 bedrooms depending on how one would want to use the layout. Recent updates include a metal roof, gas water heater, and kitchen flooring. Features include city water, city sewer, high speed cable internet access, and a one car attached garage.

26. 2016-06-03
    soldstatus $7,093
27. 2016-06-03
    soldstatus $7,093
28. 2016-06-03
    soldstatus $7,092
29. 2016-06-03
    soldstatus $7,093
30. 2016-02-17
    listed $18,900
31. 2016-02-17
    listed $18,900
32. 2016-02-17
    listed $18,900
33. 2016-02-17
    listed $18,900
34. 2003-10-06
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$2,743
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$2,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $-22/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Au Gres-Sims School District
• NCES district ID: 2603600
• Math proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $37,262
• Composite: 36.05/100
• National rank: #9513
• State rank: #376 of 760 in MI

Livability — Au Gres

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #11538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Au Gres, MI
• Population (ZIP): 2,940

Population outlook (Arenac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,036 people
• By 2030: 13,189 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 11,309 · -19.4%
• By 2050: 9,616 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 6,776 · -51.7%
• By 2100: 4,997 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 8% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Arenac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.91%
• Current HPI: 157.0897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+124.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $119,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-14 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $69,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $80,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-03 Sold (MLS) $7,093 REALCOMP
• 2016-06-03 Sold (MLS) $7,092 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-03 Sold (MLS) $7,093 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-03 Sold (MLS) $7,093 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-02-17 Listed $18,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-02-17 Listed $18,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-02-17 Listed $18,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-02-17 Listed $18,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,743 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.