1411 N Fourth St #18

Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$204,105D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,857/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax + insurance: −$340
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $678/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $57,149

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $204k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($678/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thomas M Knoles Elementary School (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 490 students, 37% FRL); Sinagua Middle School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #147 of 218 statewide, top 69%, 1,016 students, 40% FRL); Coconino High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 1,528 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.