1411 N Fourth St #18 · Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$204,105

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 2,400 sqft lot $319/sqft · at area comps Est $203k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Tiny House Village Flagstaff! Located in the center of Flagstaff is a first of its kind: residents can embrace the peace downsizing brings without sacrificing a sense of community. This new 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home has stainless appliances, upgraded cabinets & countertops, blinds, AIR CONDITIONING and fenced yard. Also includes upgraded insulation, 2x6 exterior walls, high efficiency dual pane windows and concrete driveway. Land lease includes water, sewer, trash, snow removal and clubhouse use @ 1,365.89/month. Owner is a licensed Realtor in Arizona.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Stainless appliances
• Upgraded insulation

Tags

• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• FENCED YARD
• UPGRADED INSULATION
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $204k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $204k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,858 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,359
• List price: $204,105
• Delta: 0.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 N Fourth St #19	0.00mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	9mo	$204,105	$319	92
1411 N Fourth St #6	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	14mo	$207,882	$342	75
1411 N Fourth St #7	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	14mo	$202,070	$333	75
1411 N Fourth St #8	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	15mo	$202,070	$333	74
1411 N Fourth St #29	0.00mi	2/2.0	693 (+8%)	11mo	$199,478	$288	73
1411 N Fourth St #28	0.02mi	2/2.0	711 (+11%)	8mo	$218,236	$307	70
1411 N Fourth St Unit 27	0.00mi	2/2.0	711 (+11%)	11mo	$223,574	$314	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,907
• Equity at exit: $30,433

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $22,985
• Equity at exit: $17,647

Cash invested: $57,149 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86004

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$255 /mo · $3,062/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,785

Max offer price $204,105

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,026
• Closing costs: $6,123
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 N 4th St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	944	$3,332	$3.53	44d	35	0.34mi
1965 E Mountain View Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$2,300	$2.62	44d	13	0.67mi
2410 N West St Unit B Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$1,600	$2.46	44d	1	1.06mi
4015 E Soliere Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$3,505	$4.38	44d	1	1.14mi
4255 E Soliere Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$2,258	$2.33	44d	24	1.22mi
1201 E Ponderosa Pkwy Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	585	$1,650	$2.82	44d	8	1.35mi
1105 E Ponderosa Pkwy Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$1,875	$2.54	44d	11	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $204,105 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,105 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,105 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,105 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,105 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $204,105 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,105 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,105 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,105 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $204,105 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $204,105 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $204,105 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,105 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,105 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,105 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,105 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,105 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-04-08
    listed $204,105 Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Welcome to Tiny House Village Flagstaff! Located in the center of Flagstaff is a first of its kind: residents can embrace the peace downsizing brings without sacrificing a sense of community. This new 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home has stainless appliances, upgraded cabinets & countertops, blinds, AIR CONDITIONING and fenced yard. Also includes upgraded insulation, 2x6 exterior walls, high efficiency dual pane windows and concrete driveway. Land lease includes water, sewer, trash, snow removal and clubhouse use @ 1,365.89/month. Owner is a licensed Realtor in Arizona.

19. 2024-05-30
    historical
20. 2024-05-30
    listed $212,250
21. 2024-05-30
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,433
• − Property taxes: −$3,062
• − Insurance: −$1,021
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − Depreciation: −$5,938
• Taxable income: $2,856
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$686
• After-tax cash flow: $5,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Tiny House Village Flagstaff unit is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance required. The land lease includes clubhouse access and amenities, making it an attractive rental or resale option.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Land lease with clubhouse access — Includes water, sewer, trash, snow removal and clubhouse use.
• Rental Landscaping and outdoor furniture — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space.
• Resale Smart home integration — Modernizes the home and adds convenience for potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Land lease with clubhouse access — Includes water, sewer, trash, snow removal and clubhouse use. ↑
• Rental Landscaping and outdoor furniture — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑
• Resale Smart home integration — Modernizes the home and adds convenience for potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,394
• Household income: $81,172
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Native American 12% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.67%
• Current HPI: 411.8577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $204,105 NAZMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listed $212,250 NAZMLS