1411 N Fourth St #18 · Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$204,105

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured · 122 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2023 Good condition 2,400 sqft lot $319/sqft · at area comps Est $205k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.6

Listing remarks

Welcome to Tiny House Village Flagstaff! Located in the center of Flagstaff is a first of its kind: residents can embrace the peace downsizing brings without sacrificing a sense of community. This new 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home has stainless appliances, upgraded cabinets & countertops, blinds, AIR CONDITIONING and fenced yard. Also includes upgraded insulation, 2x6 exterior walls, high efficiency dual pane windows and concrete driveway. Land lease includes water, sewer, trash, snow removal and clubhouse use @ 1,365.89/month. Owner is a licensed Realtor in Arizona.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Stainless appliances
• Upgraded insulation

Tags

• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• FENCED YARD
• UPGRADED INSULATION
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $204k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($678/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thomas M Knoles Elementary School (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 490 students, 37% FRL); Sinagua Middle School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #147 of 218 statewide, top 69%, 1,016 students, 40% FRL); Coconino High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 1,528 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,612 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,859
• List price: $204,105
• Delta: -0.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 N Fourth St #19	0.00mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	11mo	$204,105	$319	91
1411 N Fourth St #17	0.00mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	20mo	$210,000	$328	83
1411 N Fourth St #7	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	15mo	$202,070	$333	74
1411 N Fourth St #6	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	15mo	$207,882	$342	74
1411 N Fourth St #8	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	16mo	$202,070	$333	73
1411 N Fourth St #29	0.00mi	2/2.0	693 (+8%)	12mo	$199,478	$288	72
1411 N Fourth St #28	0.02mi	2/2.0	711 (+11%)	10mo	$218,236	$307	68
1411 N Fourth St Unit 27	0.00mi	2/2.0	711 (+11%)	12mo	$223,574	$314	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-32,047
• Equity at exit: $30,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-33,524
• Equity at exit: $17,647

Cash invested: $57,149 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $208,000 ($325/sqft)
• Median days on market: 96 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86004

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$255 /mo · $3,062/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,785

Max offer price $204,105

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $127	+0% $56	+5% $-14	+10% $-85
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $-17	+0% $56	+5% $130	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $108	base $56	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,026
• Closing costs: $6,123
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 N 4th St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	944	$3,332	$3.53	93d	35	0.34mi
1965 E Mountain View Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$2,300	$2.62	93d	13	0.67mi
2410 N West St Unit B Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$1,600	$2.46	93d	1	1.06mi
4015 E Soliere Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$3,505	$4.38	93d	1	1.14mi
4255 E Soliere Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$2,258	$2.33	93d	24	1.22mi
1201 E Ponderosa Pkwy Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	585	$1,650	$2.82	93d	8	1.35mi
1105 E Ponderosa Pkwy Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$1,875	$2.54	93d	11	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.06 acres (about 2,400 sq ft)Land is leased
• HOA & community: Association with clubhouseProperty located in Tiny House Village Flagstaff community

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity availableCable availablePhone available
• Home design: Single wide homeComplete spec home
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Level lotPaved road accessPrivate and public maintained roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioningRefrigeration coolingHVAC (SEER-rated)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenPantryBreakfast barSatellite dish
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $204,105 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $204,105 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $204,105 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $204,105 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $204,105 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $204,105 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $204,105 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $204,105 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $204,105 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $204,105 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $204,105 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $204,105 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $204,105 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $204,105 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $204,105 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $204,105 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $204,105 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $204,105 Active 98 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $204,105 Active 97 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $204,105 Active 96 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $204,105 Active 95 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $204,105 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $204,105 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $204,105 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $204,105 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $204,105 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $204,105 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $204,105 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $204,105 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $204,105 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $204,105 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $204,105 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $204,105 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $204,105 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $204,105 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $204,105 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $204,105 Active 79 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $204,105 Active 78 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $204,105 Active 75 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $204,105 Active 74 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $204,105 Active 72 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $204,105 Active 71 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $204,105 Active 70 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $204,105 Active 69 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $204,105 Active 68 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $204,105 Active 66 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $204,105 Active 65 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $204,105 Active 63 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $204,105 Active 62 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $204,105 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,433
• − Property taxes: −$3,062
• − Insurance: −$1,021
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$5,938
• Taxable loss: −$2,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$656
• After-tax cash flow: $1,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Tiny House Village Flagstaff unit is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance required. The land lease includes clubhouse access and amenities, making it an attractive rental or resale option.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Land lease with clubhouse access — Includes water, sewer, trash, snow removal and clubhouse use. ↑
• Rental Landscaping and outdoor furniture — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑
• Resale Smart home integration — Modernizes the home and adds convenience for potential buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Thomas M Knoles Elementary School F AZ #570/1,109 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Sinagua Middle School F AZ #147/218 Nat'l #12,279/14,009 High Coconino High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 150,645 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,394
• Household income: $81,172
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Native American 12% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.67%
• Current HPI: 411.8577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.06 acres (about 2,400 sq ft)Land is leased
• HOA & community: Association with clubhouseProperty located in Tiny House Village Flagstaff community

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity availableCable availablePhone available
• Home design: Single wide homeComplete spec home
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Level lotPaved road accessPrivate and public maintained roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioningRefrigeration coolingHVAC (SEER-rated)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenPantryBreakfast barSatellite dish
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $204,105 NAZMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listed $212,250 NAZMLS