189 Cordero Ln

Hot Springs Village, AR 71909

$169,900F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,270 sqft · Built 1971 · Townhouse · Under Contract · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,552/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$205
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-7/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-7/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (8.7% below list).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jessieville School District (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #60 of 238 in AR (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jessieville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 368 students, 99% FRL); Jessieville High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 273 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 766 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $170k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?