189 Cordero Ln · Hot Springs Village, AR 71909

$169,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,270 sqft · Townhouse public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1971 1,306 sqft lot Est $147k · 15% over $205/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhouse with golf view of Desoto Golf Course. Move in ready. A/C unit replaced 2021. Could be used as a primary home, second home or use as a rental. Refrigerator, washer and dryer convey with property. No seller disclosure available.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Updated cabinets
• Spacious closets

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED TURNKEY
• GORGEOUS GRANITE TOPS
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• UPDATED CABINETS
• FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is part of a development with a golf course
• Financial info: Potential financing: VA loan, Conventional loan, Cash
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (includes garbage, private roads, entrance security); Association/Condo fees listed; Community amenities: swimming pools, tennis courts, sauna, playground, clubhouse, party room, picnic area, marina, hot tub, fitness/bike trail, manager office, mandatory fee, party room

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking (see remarks)
• Security: Community security; Video surveillance; Gated entrance
• Utilities: Municipal electric service (Entergy); Association water; Community sewer; Insulated windows; Internet: Cable, Cellular, DSL, Satellite, Wireless
• Home design: Stucco exterior
• Construction: Stucco construction; Slab foundation; 3-tab shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Video surveillance; Paved road access; Level lot; Located in a subdivision; Common area adjacent to golf course; Golf view

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Microwave; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays; Quartz countertops
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Washer connection; Dryer included; Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Window treatments; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Furnished; Quartz kitchen countertops; 3/4 bathroom; Fireplace insert; Sheetrock walls/ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-7/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jessieville School District (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #60 of 238 in AR (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jessieville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 368 students, 99% FRL); Jessieville High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 273 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 766 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $170k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
190 Cordero Ln	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,270 (0%)	5mo	$168,000	$132	96
189 Cordero Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,270 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$130	95
33 Vaqueria Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-2%)	6mo	$120,000	$97	82
168 Cordero Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,350 (+6%)	2mo	$181,500	$134	80
13 Destino Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+2%)	4mo	$63,000	$49	77
11 Vaqueria Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+5%)	3mo	$110,000	$82	76
179 Cordero Ln	0.10mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,142 (-10%)	8mo	$158,000	$138	66
53 Perralena Way	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,160 (-9%)	2mo	$120,000	$103	64
4 Fresca Ln	0.26mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,145 (-10%)	3mo	$132,900	$116	64
2 Tomisa Ln	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,260 (-1%)	3mo	$60,000	$48	61
25 Tomisa Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	0mo	$163,500	$114	49
16 Tomisa Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-12%)	6mo	$150,000	$134	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-27,511
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-23,776
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71909

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 766
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $717/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$205
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,553

Max offer price $169,801

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $48	+0% $-1	+5% $-49	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-62	+0% $-1	+5% $61	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $43	base $-1	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Emperado Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,300	$1.00	24d	1	0.01mi
143 La Vista Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1028	$1,450	$1.41	24d	1	0.07mi
6 Tomino Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1549	$1,350	$0.87	15d	1	0.47mi
2 Dulzura Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,200	$1.07	45d	1	0.85mi
16 Dulzura Ln Unit 1 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,100	$0.98	15d	1	0.86mi
16 Malaga Cir Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	2.0	1694	$1,850	$1.09	15d	1	1.03mi
4 Astorga Cir Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,500	$1.47	24d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $205 · $2,460/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-12
   historical Take Backups
2. 2026-04-02
   price $169,900
3. 2026-01-21
   price $173,000
4. 2026-01-20
   listed $173,000 New Listing
5. 2026-01-16
   historical
6. 2025-10-28
   price $175,500
7. 2025-08-12
   listed $179,000 New Listing
8. 2022-04-05
   soldstatus $104,500
9. 2022-03-25
   soldstatus $104,500 Sold 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhouse with golf view of Desoto Golf Course. Move in ready. A/C unit replaced 2021. Could be used as a primary home, second home or use as a rental. Refrigerator, washer and dryer convey with property. No seller disclosure available.

10. 2022-02-27
    status Under Contract 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhouse with golf view of Desoto Golf Course. Move in ready. A/C unit replaced 2021. Could be used as a primary home, second home or use as a rental. Refrigerator, washer and dryer convey with property. No seller disclosure available.

11. 2022-02-24
    status Back on Market 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhouse with golf view of Desoto Golf Course. Move in ready. A/C unit replaced 2021. Could be used as a primary home, second home or use as a rental. Refrigerator, washer and dryer convey with property. No seller disclosure available.

12. 2022-02-24
    status Under Contract 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhouse with golf view of Desoto Golf Course. Move in ready. A/C unit replaced 2021. Could be used as a primary home, second home or use as a rental. Refrigerator, washer and dryer convey with property. No seller disclosure available.

13. 2022-02-18
    listed $104,500 New Listing 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhouse with golf view of Desoto Golf Course. Move in ready. A/C unit replaced 2021. Could be used as a primary home, second home or use as a rental. Refrigerator, washer and dryer convey with property. No seller disclosure available.

14. 2019-07-01
    soldstatus $55,000
15. 2019-06-28
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold
16. 2019-05-31
    status Under Contract
17. 2019-05-13
    listed $57,000 New Listing
18. 2006-03-22
    soldstatus $85,000
19. 2005-03-16
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $717 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,087 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$370/yr (+$31/mo · 51.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$717
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − HOA: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$682
• After-tax cash flow: $676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jessieville School District
• NCES district ID: 0507920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,066
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5003
• State rank: #60 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs Village

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs Village, AR
• County: Saline County · 77,216 people
• City population: 18,449
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 18,449
• Household income: $75,433
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 207.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.00%
• Current HPI: 195.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+246.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $169,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $173,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $173,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $175,500 CARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $179,000 CARMLS
• 2022-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $104,500 Public Records
• 2022-03-25 Sold (MLS) $104,500 CARMLS
• 2022-02-27 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-02-18 Listed $104,500 CARMLS
• 2019-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-28 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CARMLS
• 2019-05-31 Pending — CARMLS
• 2019-05-13 Listed $57,000 CARMLS
• 2006-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $717 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.