5016 E Ustick #1

Caldwell, ID 83605

$89,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,532/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $616/mo
• Annual: $7,386/yr
• Cap rate: 15.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.51%
• DSCR: 2.45
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Skyway Elementary (math 37% / reading 49%, grade F, #214 of 357 statewide, top 60%, 738 students, 50% FRL); Ridgevue High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #55 of 169 statewide, top 34%, 1,578 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.