5016 E Ustick #1 · Caldwell, ID 83605

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $80k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1993 Champion manufactured home features, vinly flooring, repainted inside the home. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, all electric and it has cental air. The seller will be leaving storage shed on the property. It's on a corner lot and has lots of parking.

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Split-bedroom layout
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• CLEAN LARGE STORAGE SHED
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• ATTRACTIVE LVP FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property currently used as single-family
• HOA & community: Located in the Indian Creek Estates subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home on rented lot
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Built in 1993
• Exterior features: Partial vinyl fencing; Storage shed; Paved road access; Manual/irrigation sprinkler system (irrigation available); Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/range (freestanding); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Master bedroom on main level; Split bedroom floorplan; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Skyway Elementary (math 37% / reading 49%, grade F, #214 of 357 statewide, top 60%, 738 students, 50% FRL); Ridgevue High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #55 of 169 statewide, top 34%, 1,578 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.51%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,794
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5016 E Ustick Rd #16	0.00mi	2/1.0	918 (+7%)	7mo	$85,000	$93	83
200 Friar Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	924 (+8%)	5mo	$85,000	$92	74
107 Lancelot Ct	0.31mi	2/1.0	937 (+9%)	2mo	$80,000	$85	69
5015 E Ustick Rd #181	0.32mi	2/2.0	924 (+8%)	0mo	$85,000	$92	68
5015 E Ustick Rd #143	0.32mi	2/1.0	924 (+8%)	17mo	$94,000	$102	58
5015 E Ustick #164	0.32mi	2/2.0	924 (+8%)	14mo	$96,500	$104	56
5015 E Ustick Rd #111	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (+8%)	14mo	$104,000	$113	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $24,166
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $69,608
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83605

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,532 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $230/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $753

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4901 Maid Jessica St Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	14d	1	0.58mi
4209 Saylor Ln Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,925	$1.85	21d	1	0.70mi
5218 Guitar Ln Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	920	$1,422	$1.55	2d	6	0.70mi
4113 Saylor Ln Unit A Caldwell, ID	1.0	1.0	706	$1,550	$2.20	12d	1	0.75mi
6903 Noah Ct Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	990	$1,550	$1.57	14d	1	0.94mi
401 Canyon Village Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1161	$2,150	$1.85	3d	31	0.99mi
6921 Noah Ct Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	21d	1	0.99mi
6916 Enoch Dr Caldwell, ID	1.0	1.0	935	$1,275	$1.36	23d	1	1.02mi
209 Abraham Way Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.0	840	$1,350	$1.61	23d	1	1.04mi
7012 Noah Dr Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	940	$1,550	$1.65	21d	1	1.05mi
10890 Blue River Ln Nampa, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	832	$1,696	$2.04	3d	8	1.25mi
3304 S Florida Ave Caldwell, ID	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	1.45mi
5012 Hamlet Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	998	$1,550	$1.55	2d	2	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $89,900 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-05-09
   listed $94,900 Active
5. 2021-02-15
   status Pending 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   This 1993 Champion manufactured home features, vinly flooring, repainted inside the home. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, all electric and it has cental air. The seller will be leaving storage shed on the property. It's on a corner lot and has lots of parking.

6. 2021-02-10
   status Active 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   This 1993 Champion manufactured home features, vinly flooring, repainted inside the home. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, all electric and it has cental air. The seller will be leaving storage shed on the property. It's on a corner lot and has lots of parking.

7. 2021-02-08
   status Pending 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   This 1993 Champion manufactured home features, vinly flooring, repainted inside the home. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, all electric and it has cental air. The seller will be leaving storage shed on the property. It's on a corner lot and has lots of parking.

8. 2021-01-18
   status Active 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   This 1993 Champion manufactured home features, vinly flooring, repainted inside the home. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, all electric and it has cental air. The seller will be leaving storage shed on the property. It's on a corner lot and has lots of parking.

9. 2021-01-15
   status Pending 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   This 1993 Champion manufactured home features, vinly flooring, repainted inside the home. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, all electric and it has cental air. The seller will be leaving storage shed on the property. It's on a corner lot and has lots of parking.

10. 2020-12-23
    listed $50,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    This 1993 Champion manufactured home features, vinly flooring, repainted inside the home. It has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, all electric and it has cental air. The seller will be leaving storage shed on the property. It's on a corner lot and has lots of parking.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $230 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $620 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 169.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$230
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $6,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $5,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vallivue School District
• NCES district ID: 1600600
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 38.3/100
• National rank: #4229
• State rank: #48 of 92 in ID

Livability — Caldwell

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #10145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caldwell, ID
• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 76,816
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 41,325
• Household income: $68,427
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.47%
• Current HPI: 366.7896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+89.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $94,900 IMLS
• 2021-02-15 Pending — IMLS
• 2021-02-10 Relisted — IMLS
• 2021-02-08 Pending — IMLS
• 2021-01-18 Relisted — IMLS
• 2021-01-15 Pending — IMLS
• 2020-12-23 Listed $50,000 IMLS

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.