823 Cottonwood Dr

Enumclaw, WA 98022

$25,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,463/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $1,773/mo
• Annual: $21,273/yr
• Cap rate: 91.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 303.90%
• DSCR: 14.52
• 1% rule: 9.85%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#12 in WA, #222 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Enumclaw School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #46 of 291 in WA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 91.4% vs local median 2.4% in Enumclaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.