823 Cottonwood Dr · Enumclaw, WA 98022

$25,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 170 Days on market

Built 1983 $19/sqft · 83% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ Community of Mt. Villa. Fantastic opportunity to build instant equity at an affordable entry price! This property has solid bones and endless potential. While it does need some TLC, it’s perfect for a handyman investor or anyone looking for a budget-friendly home that they can customize over time. Open floor plan with a sizable living room. Bright kitchen offering lots of cabinet space, convenient to the dining area. Nice primary bedroom with a full bathroom. With a little vision and effort, this place could easily transform into a warm and inviting retreat in the very desirable Mount Villa Estates in

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1983
• Listed 170 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 91.4% vs local median 2.4% in Enumclaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#12 in WA, #222 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Enumclaw School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #46 of 291 in WA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 91.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 303.86%
• DSCR: 14.52
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,305
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -83.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1144 Douglas Fir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$180,000	$134	74
209 Noble Fir Cir #60	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$150,000	$112	72
926 Pine Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	9mo	$119,500	$96	71
943 Pine Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,244 (-7%)	16mo	$210,000	$169	70
1207 Maple Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	6mo	$160,000	$110	69
936 Mountain Villa Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+12%)	1mo	$222,000	$147	69
207 Noble Fir Cir	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$140,000	$104	67
1106 Mountian Villa Loop	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	10mo	$90,000	$72	67
252 Grand Fir Dr #25	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+1%)	12mo	$185,000	$137	65
206 Noble Fir Cir	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	11mo	$70,000	$56	47
201 Grand Fir Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-12%)	14mo	$144,000	$121	47
2200 Oak Ave #49	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	8mo	$135,000	$88	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.03×
• Total profit: $112,191
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 37.74×
• Total profit: $257,179
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98022

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $1,773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
847 Blake St Enumclaw, WA	3.0	1.0	1064	$2,000	$1.88	1d	1	0.13mi
124 Jewell St Enumclaw, WA	3.0	1.5	1540	$3,200	$2.08	43d	1	0.33mi
615 Watson St N Unit 617B Enumclaw, WA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,999	$2.08	1d	1	0.35mi
556 Bondgard Ave E Enumclaw, WA	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,995	$2.02	10d	1	0.65mi
312 Charwila Ln Enumclaw, WA	2.0	1.0	894	$1,750	$1.96	12d	1	0.81mi
250 Charwila Ln Enumclaw, WA	2.0	1.0	894	$1,750	$1.96	2d	1	0.81mi
1571 Kibler Ave Enumclaw, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	20d	1	0.94mi
1571 Kibler Ave Enumclaw, WA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	15d	1	0.94mi
320 Chinook Ave Enumclaw, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,283	$2.47	1d	7	0.96mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $25,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    status $25,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-01-22
    price $25,000
14. 2025-12-18
    listed $49,950 Active
15. 2004-05-17
    soldstatus $32,000
16. 2003-11-04
    listed $34,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $22,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,326
• After-tax cash flow: $15,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Enumclaw School District
• NCES district ID: 5300001
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,441
• Composite: 55.21/100
• National rank: #2736
• State rank: #46 of 291 in WA

Livability — Enumclaw

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #222

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B+ Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Enumclaw, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 22,418
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 22,418
• Household income: $120,406
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -605.16%
• Current HPI: 297.9161
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Listed $49,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-17 Sold (MLS) $32,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-04 Listed $34,990 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid