5869 E Mono St

Fresno, CA 93727

$419,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,743 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,993/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax + insurance: −$707
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-540/mo
• Annual: $-6,479/yr
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $117,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $419k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-540 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($381k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $299k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Clovis Unified (suburban): math 58% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #152 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fancher Creek Elementary (692 students, 79% FRL); Reyburn Intermediate (1,643 students, 58% FRL); Clovis East High (2,768 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 32% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.