4911 Key Lime Dr Unit 108

Jacksonville, FL 32256

$189,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,145 sqft · Built 2012 · Condo · Active · 166 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,718/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$260
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-923/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-923/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 513 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $145k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?