521 Pinellas Bayway S #202

Tierra Verde, FL 33715

$445,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,140 sqft · Built 2000 · Condo · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$1,007
• HOA: −$640
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$934
• Net cashflow: $-466/mo
• Annual: $-5,594/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (0.0% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $363k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-689 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#646 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulfport Montessori Elementary School (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 435 students, 86% FRL); Bay Point Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 770 students, 69% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 915 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $354k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?