521 Pinellas Bayway S #202 · Tierra Verde, FL 33715

$445,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,140 sqft · Condo public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2000 $640/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bath townhome located in a Waterfront Community features an open-concept kitchen with a great room and triple sliding doors that lead to the screened balcony, offering a view of the pool. The extra-large primary bedroom with an ensuite features a double vanity, a large jacuzzi tub, and a separate shower. Tierra Verde offers a variety of amenities including restaurants, marinas, kayaking, tennis courts, pickleball, boat ramps, and bike paths for your enjoyment. Located just minutes from historic Fort DeSoto Beach, consistently voted as one of America's finest beaches, boasting over three miles of white sandy shores.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• View of the pool
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SCREENED BALCONY
• VIEW OF THE POOL
• DOUBLE VANITY
• LARGE JACUZZI TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees $640; total annual fees $7,680; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Tierra Shores Twnhms; Monthly HOA fee $640 (includes cable TV, pool, internet, maintenance - structure & grounds, trash, water, escrow reserves); Association approval required; Pool and sidewalks in community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Completed condition; Three or more levels; Facing south
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built/recorded area about 2140 (public records)
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch; Balcony; Sliding doors; Flood insurance required; Asphalt road access; Community kayak lift; Seawall (concrete)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one or more on upper level)
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom layout; Inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#646 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulfport Montessori Elementary School (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 435 students, 86% FRL); Bay Point Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 770 students, 69% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 915 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-689 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $354k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $362,649 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-45,314
• Equity at exit: $125,778

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-20,401
• Equity at exit: $148,477

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33715

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,448 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,737/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$640
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$934
• Net cashflow: $-466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,038

Max offer price $362,649

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-214	-5% $-340	+0% $-466	+5% $-592	+10% $-718
Rent	-10% $-818	-5% $-642	+0% $-466	+5% $-290	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-242	-0.5pp $-353	base $-466	+0.5pp $-581	+1.0pp $-699

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
637 Pinellas Bayway Unit 105 Tierra Verde, FL	2.0	2.5	1650	$4,000	$2.42	6d	1	0.13mi
375 Madeira Cir Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.0	1585	$4,200	$2.65	16d	1	0.16mi
346 Madeira Cir Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1585	$3,300	$2.08	5d	1	0.18mi
745 Pinellas Bayway S #206 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1475	$2,950	$2.00	22d	1	0.23mi
745 Pinellas Bayway S #105 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1475	$3,000	$2.03	26d	1	0.23mi
751 Pinellas Bayway S #305 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$3,200	$2.00	26d	1	0.28mi
910 Pinellas Bayway S #103 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1580	$3,900	$2.47	26d	1	0.39mi
853 2nd Ave S Tierra Verde, FL	3.0	2.0	1841	$4,300	$2.34	26d	1	0.40mi
1055 Pinellas Bayway S Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.5	2236	$6,000	$2.68	4d	1	0.48mi
1101 Pinellas Bayway S #303 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	2014	$3,550	$1.76	26d	1	0.50mi
1101 Pinellas Bayway S Tierra Verde, FL	2.0	2.5	2014	$3,700	$1.84	26d	1	0.51mi
1117 Pinellas Bayway S #306 St Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1918	$4,550	$2.37	4d	1	0.59mi
1117 Pinellas Bayway S #303 St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1918	$3,200	$1.67	19d	1	0.59mi
337 1st St W Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1679	$4,800	$2.86	26d	1	0.66mi
795 Collany Rd #205 Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.0	2850	$8,000	$2.81	16d	1	0.78mi
113 4th Ave St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$7,500	$4.69	0d	1	0.89mi
106 7th Ave St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1599	$9,000	$5.63	26d	1	0.90mi
1593 Pinellas Bayway S Unit 1 St. Petersburg, FL	4.0	3.5	2750	$5,975	$2.17	0d	1	0.92mi
1593 Pinellas Bayway S Unit 1 St. Petersburg, FL	4.0	3.5	2750	$5,975	$2.17	3d	1	0.92mi
1575 Pinellas Bayway S Unit 1575 St. Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.5	2100	$3,700	$1.76	26d	1	0.92mi
2460 E Vina del Mar Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2109	$7,500	$3.56	6d	1	1.12mi
105 21st Ave St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2765	$6,000	$2.17	6d	1	1.24mi
301 N Tessier Dr Unit 1545798P St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$4,355	$2.30	14d	1	1.27mi
291 N Tessier Dr St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$6,500	$3.29	6d	1	1.28mi
6291 Bahia del Mar Cir St Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1222	$3,830	$3.13	26d	2	1.43mi
3003 W Vina del Mar Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1884	$7,000	$3.72	6d	1	1.48mi
3012 E Vina del Mar Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2416	$7,000	$2.90	6d	1	1.49mi
3012 E Vina del Mar Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2416	$7,000	$2.90	19d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $640 · $7,680/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $445,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $445,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $445,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    listed $445,000 Active
15. 2026-03-02
    historical
16. 2026-02-11
    price $475,000
17. 2025-11-26
    price $499,000
18. 2025-11-03
    listed $520,000 Active
19. 2025-07-17
    historical
20. 2025-06-26
    price $530,000
21. 2025-02-25
    price $555,000
22. 2025-02-10
    status Active
23. 2025-02-06
    historical
24. 2025-01-10
    price $570,000
25. 2025-01-03
    price $579,000
26. 2024-11-13
    price $587,000
27. 2024-09-06
    listed $595,000 Active
28. 2020-01-23
    soldstatus $354,000
29. 2020-01-22
    soldstatus $354,000 Sold
30. 2020-01-07
    status Pending
31. 2019-10-16
    listed $369,900 Active
32. 2013-04-03
    soldstatus $185,000
33. 2013-03-12
    soldstatus $185,000
34. 2012-11-09
    listed $199,000
35. 2007-10-30
    soldstatus $299,900
36. 2007-10-25
    soldstatus $299,900
37. 2007-09-25
    historical
38. 2007-09-16
    listed $299,900
39. 2007-04-01
    listed $299,900
40. 2003-02-04
    soldstatus $268,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,737 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,737 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$4,737
• − Insurance: −$7,344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,270
• − Management: −$4,270
• − HOA: −$7,680
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$12,794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,071
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tierra Verde

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tierra Verde, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 7,932
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,032
• Household income: $102,782
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 106.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Hungarian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Current HPI: 264.9727
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+65.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $445,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $499,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Listed $520,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $530,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $555,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $570,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $579,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $587,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-06 Listed $595,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $354,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-22 Sold (MLS) $354,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-16 Listed $369,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-12 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-09 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $299,900 Public Records
• 2007-10-25 Sold (MLS) $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-16 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-01 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $268,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,737 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.