7430 W Bopp Rd

Tucson Estates, AZ 85735

$140,000C+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,571/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $323/mo
• Annual: $3,870/yr
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.91%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Laura N. Banks Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 308 students, 70% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $140k implies a 483% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.