7430 W Bopp Rd · Tucson Estates, AZ 85735

$140,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1980 1.60 ac lot $167/sqft · 18% below area Est $154k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-Upper Special! Sitting on 1.54 acres this property offers space and opportunity! Zoned Gr-1, this property allows for limited agricultural and livestock options (buyer to verify). Featuring a 756 square foot (affixed) manufactured home 2 BR/1.5 bath, with large carport and security lights. The home has gas heat, gas stove, and mini-split air conditioner (not tested, buyer responsible for any utility activation). There is also a large (1000+ sf) workshop w/ electric and concrete floor. Property has multiple areas of deferred maintenance and is priced accordingly low. CASH or HARD MONEY LOAN TRANSACTION ONLY-Not eligible for financing. Caution: no hand rail and uneven landing surfaces.

Key facts

• 1.54 acres
• Gas heat
• Large carport

Tags

• 1.54 ACRES
• ZONED GR-1
• LARGE CARPORT
• SECURITY LIGHTS
• GAS HEAT
• GAS STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 69,696 sq ft (irregular dimensions: 273' x 329' x 135' x 258'); Zoned Pima County - GR1
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached covered parking; 2 carport spaces; 2 covered spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Faces southeast
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Workshop; Dirt road access; Adjacent to a wash; East/West and North/South exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Gas range; Vinyl flooring; Laundry located in bathroom; One full bathroom and one half bathroom (2 total)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Laura N. Banks Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 308 students, 70% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $140k implies a 483% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.91%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,500
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -9.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4104 S Aldon Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	5mo	$164,000	$209	61
3489 S White Gold Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	4mo	$145,000	$151	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,152
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $24,548
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $712/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $140,000 Active 698-char remark
16. 2020-11-04
    historical
17. 2020-05-30
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 1994-02-02
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $712 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$712
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,708
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$410
• After-tax cash flow: $3,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+483.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $140,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-11-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2020-05-30 Listed $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 1994-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $712 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.