4358 Lincolndale Dr

Ellenwood, GA 30294

$125,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$369
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $396/mo
• Annual: $4,757/yr
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.59%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oakview Elementary (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,160 of 1,228 statewide, top 98%, 668 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #433 of 470 statewide, top 93%, 777 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,123 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 9% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dekalb County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $98k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.5% in Ellenwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrown grass and shrubs need trimming and shaping.
• Minor: Fencing — No fencing is visible, but it is noted for context.