4358 Lincolndale Dr · Ellenwood, GA 30294

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition 0.30 ac lot $119/sqft · 48% below area Est $238k · 48% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS ONLY. PROPERTY IS TENANT OCCUPIED, WITH LEASE EXPIRING 2/28/2027, PAYING $1395 PER MONTH. SHOWINGS WILL ONLY BE SCHEDULED ONCE UNDER CONTRACT DURING DUE DILIGENCE. NO FORMAL INSPECTION HAS BEEN DONE. CONDITION OF SYSTEMS, ROOF, ECT IS UNKNOWN. DO NOT USE SHOWING TIME. DO NOT DISTURB TENANT.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 49 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $125,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$238,200) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 5.7% in Ellenwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oakview Elementary (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,160 of 1,228 statewide, top 98%, 668 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #433 of 470 statewide, top 93%, 777 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,123 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 9% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dekalb County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $98k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.25%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,200
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -47.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4342 Lincolndale Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	992 (-6%)	14mo	$170,500	$172	76
3339 Clevemont Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+10%)	6mo	$210,000	$183	70
4293 Westglen Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+7%)	15mo	$207,000	$184	58
3501 Mosley Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	980 (-7%)	12mo	$43,000	$44	57
3406 Homeward Trl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+12%)	23mo	$197,000	$168	47
3350 Homeward Trl	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,151 (+10%)	23mo	$205,000	$178	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $9,253
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $54,976
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $209,900 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +28.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,807/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,297

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $451	+0% $416	+5% $380	+10% $345
Rent	-10% $272	-5% $344	+0% $416	+5% $488	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $447	base $416	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4325 Lincolndale Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,400	$1.35	35d	1	0.08mi
4435 Lincolndale Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	1.5	1400	$1,593	$1.14	35d	1	0.18mi
3335 Crestview Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,650	$1.11	46d	1	0.23mi
4402 Davana Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,573	$1.49	42d	1	0.23mi
3378 Homeward Trl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,645	$1.40	12d	1	0.26mi
3342 Crestview Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,601	$1.24	54d	1	0.26mi
3428 Homeward Trl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,745	$1.40	37d	1	0.30mi
3428 Homeward Trl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,745	$1.40	34d	1	0.30mi
3303 Homeward Trl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,799	$1.24	71d	1	0.42mi
4485 Sims Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,783	$1.49	30d	1	0.48mi
4229 Catalpa Park Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,675	$1.31	93d	1	0.75mi
135 Bond Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,695	$1.40	0d	1	0.83mi
31 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	16d	1	0.83mi
37 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	93d	1	0.84mi
39 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	62d	1	0.85mi
46 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	73d	1	0.92mi
48 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	67d	1	0.93mi
210 Orchard Vw Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,740	$1.32	1d	1	0.97mi
65 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	67d	1	0.97mi
67 Poole Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	67d	1	0.98mi
3821 River Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,195	$1.51	93d	1	0.99mi
3637 Windmill Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	73d	1	1.33mi
4145 Riverbank Ct Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,724	$1.15	3d	1	1.35mi
3793 Riverside Cswy Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,850	$1.29	3d	1	1.36mi
3862 Shane Ct Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1372	$1,750	$1.28	32d	1	1.39mi
3868 Leyland Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1312	$1,923	$1.47	93d	1	1.39mi
3830 Riverside Pkwy Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1286	$1,765	$1.37	16d	1	1.45mi
4153 Ward Lake Trl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,930	$1.32	93d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterSewer: other/unspecifiedElectric: other/unspecifiedCooling: other/unspecifiedHeating: other/unspecifiedOther utilities listed
• Home design: One-level homeResale property
• Construction: Built with other/unspecified construction materialsOther/unspecified roof type
• Exterior features: Asphalt road accessTax/legal description not provided

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen features not specified
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main levelBedroom features not specified
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main levelNo master bathroom features listed
• Interior features: No common walls (detached)Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Appliances listed as other (specifics not provided)

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-27
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-26
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-24
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-17
    days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
20. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
21. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
22. 2026-05-12
    listed $140,000 Active 307-char remark
23. 2011-05-07
    price $15,300 Reduced
24. 2006-09-20
    soldstatus $98,500
25. 1998-11-18
    soldstatus $77,500
26. 1989-12-29
    soldstatus $39,808
27. 1987-09-30
    soldstatus $46,800
28. 1982-05-21
    soldstatus $40,800
29. 1980-11-11
    soldstatus $39,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,807 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,807 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,807
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$794
• After-tax cash flow: $4,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $26,250–$47,250 screening

The property has a fair condition with a good roof and exterior, but needs landscaping and possibly a fence to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown grass and shrubs need trimming and shaping.
• Minor Fencing — No fencing is visible, but it is noted for context.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and Fencing — Improving the landscaping and adding a fence would enhance curb appeal and safety, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 9/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oakview Elementary F GA #1,160/1,228 Nat'l #40,579/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle School F GA #433/470 Nat'l #13,419/14,009 High Cedar Grove High School F GA #336/424 Nat'l #15,755/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ellenwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 839,977 people
• City population: 41,983
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterSewer: other/unspecifiedElectric: other/unspecifiedCooling: other/unspecifiedHeating: other/unspecifiedOther utilities listed
• Home design: One-level homeResale property
• Construction: Built with other/unspecified construction materialsOther/unspecified roof type
• Exterior features: Asphalt road accessTax/legal description not provided

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen features not specified
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main levelBedroom features not specified
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main levelNo master bathroom features listed
• Interior features: No common walls (detached)Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Appliances listed as other (specifics not provided)

Price history

+218.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $125,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $140,000 FMLS
• 2011-05-07 Price Changed $15,300 GAMLS
• 2006-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 1998-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 1989-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $39,808 Public Records
• 1987-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $46,800 Public Records
• 1982-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $40,800 Public Records
• 1980-11-11 Sold (Public Records) $39,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,807 · +62.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.