4250 Forestbrook Dr

Liverpool, NY 13090

$289,900D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,804 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,809/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$777
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-937/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-937/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (3.1% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#16 in NY, #363 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elmcrest Elementary School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #1,177 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 408 students, 38% FRL); Liverpool Middle School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 313 students, 51% FRL); Liverpool High School (math 94% / reading 54%, grade B+, #658 of 1,100 statewide, top 60%, 2,124 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.