2898 Route 9w, Lot 15

New Windsor, NY 12553

$84,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,599/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$1,165
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-488/mo
• Annual: $-5,862/yr
• Cap rate: -0.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.66%
• DSCR: -0.10
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $14k (83.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $14k (83.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#529 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Cornwall Central School District (suburban): math 66% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #133 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cornwall Middle School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 895 students, 22% FRL); Cornwall Central High School (math 96% / reading 90%, grade A+, #147 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,027 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 73% of rent.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate -0.6% vs local median 3.3% in New Windsor — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 83% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.