2898 Route 9w, Lot 15 · New Windsor, NY 12553

$84,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 1997 Excellent condition $108/sqft · at area comps Est $113k · 25% under $1165/mo HOA · 56% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning, brand new 2025 manufactured home offers a modern, contemporary feel with all the comforts you desire. Boasting three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Open floor plan with a bright and airy living room that flows seamlessly into a gorgeous, modern kitchen. The kitchen features beautiful, contemporary style cabinets, a full pantry cabinet, and an abundance of counter and cabinet space. The corner sink offers a touch of elegance along with an appliance package! The primary bedroom is a spacious retreat, complete with an attached full bath featuring a walk-in shower and a full linen cabinet. The additional bedrooms are also nicely sized, offering comfort and versatility. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated laundry room, and so much more! Features include – ceiling fans, recessed lighting, SS appliances, parking for 2 cars. Photos are of another property recently sold to depict builder quality. 60 mi to NYC, close to 84, 87, 17 and trains and buses to NYC. All this and Cornwall schools! Home is in and ready to tour. Call now this one will not last.

Key facts

• Close to west point
• Central location
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• PRIVATE DOUBLE LOT BACKYARD
• OVERSIZED LEVEL BACKYARD
• CENTRAL LOCATION
• CLOSE TO WEST POINT
• CLOSE TO STEWART AIRPORT
• CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $69k (18.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in New Windsor — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#529 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, cost of living D+.
• Cornwall Central School District (suburban): math 66% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #133 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $63k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 56% of rent.

Recommended offer $68,821 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,183
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: 30.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-20,087
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-23,569
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$1,165
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,217

Max offer price $68,821

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Cross St New Windsor, NY	2.0	1.0	992	$2,250	$2.27	43d	1	0.60mi
40 Cedar Ln Unit 9 New Windsor, NY	1.0	1.0	770	$1,700	$2.21	14d	1	0.79mi
247 Hudson St Apt 1 Cornwall-On-Hudson, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$1,650	$2.54	43d	1	1.23mi
247 Hudson St Cornwall on Hudson, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	43d	1	1.23mi
247 Hudson St Apt 3 Cornwall-On-Hudson, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	23d	1	1.23mi
223 Hudson St Apt 2 Cornwall-On-Hudson, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$2,275	$2.53	14d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,165 · $13,980/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $84,900 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $148,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $148,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $148,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $148,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $148,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $148,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-01-22
    listed $148,000 Active 1076-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1076 chars)

    This stunning, brand new 2025 manufactured home offers a modern, contemporary feel with all the comforts you desire. Boasting three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Open floor plan with a bright and airy living room that flows seamlessly into a gorgeous, modern kitchen. The kitchen features beautiful, contemporary style cabinets, a full pantry cabinet, and an abundance of counter and cabinet space. The corner sink offers a touch of elegance along with an appliance package! The primary bedroom is a spacious retreat, complete with an attached full bath featuring a walk-in shower and a full linen cabinet. The additional bedrooms are also nicely sized, offering comfort and versatility. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated laundry room, and so much more! Features include – ceiling fans, recessed lighting, SS appliances, parking for 2 cars. Photos are of another property recently sold to depict builder quality. 60 mi to NYC, close to 84, 87, 17 and trains and buses to NYC. All this and Cornwall schools! Home is in and ready to tour. Call now this one will not last.

15. 2026-01-17
    historical
16. 2025-11-26
    status Active
17. 2025-08-27
    status Pending
18. 2025-07-16
    listed $148,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − HOA: −$13,980
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable loss: −$1,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$473
• After-tax cash flow: $-861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new 2025 manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and ample space. It is move-in ready and would be an excellent investment for both resale and rental purposes.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls and ceilings — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's rental value by making it more appealing to tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting interior walls and ceilings — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's rental value by making it more appealing to tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cornwall Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608430
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,331
• Composite: 60.96/100
• National rank: #805
• State rank: #133 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Windsor

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #9423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Windsor, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 27,384
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $148,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listed $148,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid