944 Doe Run Rd

Mount Airy, NC 24053

$225,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 415 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,102/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-684/mo
• Annual: $-8,213/yr
• Cap rate: 2.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.04%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-684 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (44.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (51.0% below list).
• It's been on market 415 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (51.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#473 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 235 students, 83% FRL); Hardin Reynolds Memorial School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #65 of 342 statewide, top 21%, 217 students, 82% FRL); Patrick County High (math 66% / reading 76%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 851 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 45% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 415 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.