944 Doe Run Rd · Mount Airy, NC 24053

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 415 Days on market

Built 1984 1.09 ac lot $167/sqft · 23% below area Est $292k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

( What A Gem ) 3 BR 2 BA Brick House with 1.09 +or- Acres Nestle in the Foothills Of The Blue Ridge Mountains. Has an Attached Carport and a Detached Shelter . Also their is a few old buildings Encroaching on the property line. ( Don't Let This One Get A Way )

Key facts

• Brick house
• Attached carport
• Storage building

Tags

• BRICK HOUSE
• STORAGE BUILDING
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-684 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (44.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (51.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (51.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#473 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 235 students, 83% FRL); Hardin Reynolds Memorial School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #65 of 342 statewide, top 21%, 217 students, 82% FRL); Patrick County High (math 66% / reading 76%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 851 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 45% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 415 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $110,191 (51.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 415 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.04%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 17.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,488
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -23.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $43,728
• Equity at exit: $165,209

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $159,222
• Equity at exit: $322,621

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24053

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Price-to-rent: 17.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $125,964

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-529	-5% $-607	+0% $-684	+5% $-762	+10% $-840
Rent	-10% $-771	-5% $-728	+0% $-684	+5% $-641	+10% $-597
Rate	-1.0pp $-571	-0.5pp $-627	base $-684	+0.5pp $-743	+1.0pp $-802

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $225,000 Active 415 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 414 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 412 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 411 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 410 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 409 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 408 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 406 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 405 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 402 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 401 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 400 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 397 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 396 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 395 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 394 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 393 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 392 DOM
19. 2025-08-25
    status Active 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    ( What a Gem ) 3 BR 2 BA Brick House with 1.09 +or- Acres Nestle in the Foothills Of The Blue Ridge Mountains Attached Carport and a Detached Shelter. Also their is a few old buildings Encroaching on the property Line.( Don't Let This One Get A Way )

20. 2025-08-25
    status Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    ( What a Gem ) 3 BR 2 BA Brick House with 1.09 +or- Acres Nestle in the Foothills Of The Blue Ridge Mountains Attached Carport and a Detached Shelter. Also their is a few old buildings Encroaching on the property Line.( Don't Let This One Get A Way )

21. 2025-04-25
    status Pending 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    ( What a Gem ) 3 BR 2 BA Brick House with 1.09 +or- Acres Nestle in the Foothills Of The Blue Ridge Mountains Attached Carport and a Detached Shelter. Also their is a few old buildings Encroaching on the property Line.( Don't Let This One Get A Way )

22. 2025-04-25
    status Pending 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    ( What a Gem ) 3 BR 2 BA Brick House with 1.09 +or- Acres Nestle in the Foothills Of The Blue Ridge Mountains Attached Carport and a Detached Shelter. Also their is a few old buildings Encroaching on the property Line.( Don't Let This One Get A Way )

23. 2025-01-01
    listed $225,000 Active 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    ( What a Gem ) 3 BR 2 BA Brick House with 1.09 +or- Acres Nestle in the Foothills Of The Blue Ridge Mountains Attached Carport and a Detached Shelter. Also their is a few old buildings Encroaching on the property Line.( Don't Let This One Get A Way )

24. 2025-01-01
    listed $225,000 Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    ( What a Gem ) 3 BR 2 BA Brick House with 1.09 +or- Acres Nestle in the Foothills Of The Blue Ridge Mountains Attached Carport and a Detached Shelter. Also their is a few old buildings Encroaching on the property Line.( Don't Let This One Get A Way )

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$12,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,010
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patrick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102880
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,331
• Composite: 60.52/100
• National rank: #842
• State rank: #18 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mount Airy

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #473
• US rank: #17188

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 36,241
• Population (ZIP): 2,461

Population outlook (Patrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,918 people
• By 2030: 16,097 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,317 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 12,476 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 9,051 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 6,138 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Patrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -30.6pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+30.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Current HPI: 143.3491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2025-08-25 Relisted — Triad MLS
• 2025-04-25 Pending — SWVAR
• 2025-04-25 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $225,000 SWVAR
• 2025-01-01 Listed $225,000 Triad MLS