4240 Chapel Gate Pl

Riverside, MD 21017

$289,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,724 sqft · Built 1992 · Townhouse · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,224/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$93
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-166/mo
• Annual: $-1,992/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#58 in MD, #2,187 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Church Creek Elementary (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #441 of 860 statewide, top 52%, 725 students, 58% FRL); Aberdeen Middle (math 5% / reading 27%, grade F, #183 of 225 statewide, top 84%, 1,082 students, 63% FRL); Aberdeen High (math 47% / reading 56%, grade D+, #105 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 1,495 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 24% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 35% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $225k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.