4586 Tilbury Ct #345

Firestone, CO 80504

$165,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2011 · Manufactured · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,745/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $1,154/mo
• Annual: $13,853/yr
• Cap rate: 14.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.98%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#44 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 468 students, 33% FRL); Mead High School (math 34% / reading 59%, grade D-, #137 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,119 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 2.9% in Firestone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.