4586 Tilbury Ct #345 · Firestone, CO 80504

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2011 Est $134k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate 3 bed/2 bath home in the heart of Firestone backing to beautiful open space with peaceful views and added privacy. The well maintained home is move in ready and loaded with upgrades including R-50 attic insulation for exceptional energy efficiency, newer A/C, newer hot water heater, newer dishwasher and microwave, updated washer/dryer and new skirting. Bright open floor plan with spacious living areas and a comfortable layout perfect for everyday living. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurant, parks and easy commuting access while still enjoying a quiet setting. Pride of ownership shines throughout this exceptional home!

Key facts

• Newer dishwasher
• Newer a/c
• Newer microwave

Tags

• R-50 ATTIC INSULATION
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• NEWER A/C
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER
• NEWER DISHWASHER
• NEWER MICROWAVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Built by Skyline
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features
• Utilities: City water (meter installed); Public sewer; Natural gas available (Xcel); Electricity available; Trash service: Eagle Crest
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Mobile home
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Land lease; Partial fencing; Level lot; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window coverings; Fire alarm
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 2.9% in Firestone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#44 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 468 students, 33% FRL); Mead High School (math 34% / reading 59%, grade D-, #137 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,119 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.98%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4616 Tilbury Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (0%)	4mo	$135,000	$93	90
10658 Bald Eagle Cir	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,456 (0%)	3mo	$125,000	$86	87
10686 Baily St #153	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,456 (0%)	6mo	$127,000	$87	78
10600 Titan Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-4%)	10mo	$143,000	$102	76
10655 Titan Ave #324	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,528 (+5%)	18mo	$145,000	$95	70
10609 Bald Eagle Cir #371	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	18mo	$135,000	$89	66
10655 Titan Ave	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	18mo	$145,000	$92	66
10540 Barron Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-7%)	1mo	$157,000	$116	64
4595 Ashwood St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-8%)	16mo	$108,900	$81	62
10844 Belmont St N	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	6mo	$162,500	$107	60
10846 Bailey St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-4%)	9mo	$125,000	$89	59
10729 Belmont St #146	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,292 (-11%)	11mo	$70,000	$54	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $38,706
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $97,144
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80504

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $961/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $1,154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,284

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10670 Jake Jabs Blvd Firestone, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,595	$2.50	13d	26	0.17mi
10910 Turner Blvd #70 Longmont, CO	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,999	$1.74	21d	1	0.79mi
4347 Rangeview Cir Longmont, CO	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2143	$3,128	$1.46	13d	4	0.92mi
10692 Durango Pl Longmont, CO	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,395	$1.60	21d	1	0.94mi
10426 Durango Pl Longmont, CO	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,350	$1.57	21d	1	0.95mi
5620 Tumbleweed Ave Firestone, CO	3.0	2.0	1747	$3,200	$1.83	21d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    remarks 651-char remark
14. 2026-05-30
    listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $961 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $961 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$961
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,635
• − Management: −$2,635
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $11,840
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,842
• After-tax cash flow: $11,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J
• NCES district ID: 0805370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,571
• Composite: 37.73/100
• National rank: #4353
• State rank: #23 of 86 in CO

Livability — Firestone

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #5060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Firestone, CO
• County: Weld County · 332,652 people
• City population: 1,684
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• Population (ZIP): 63,451
• Household income: $113,643
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1028.0

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -534.45%
• Current HPI: 245.1351
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.34%
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $165,000 IRES

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $961 · +349.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.