207 Harvest Way

Toms River, NJ 08755

$415,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,700 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,972/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$692
• HOA: −$258
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$834
• Net cashflow: $12/mo
• Annual: $147/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($147/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (4.3% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $397k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Dover Elementary School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #513 of 1,303 statewide, top 40%, 394 students, 33% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 12476% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,972/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.