207 Harvest Way · Toms River, NJ 08755

$415,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition 871 sqft lot 1-car garage $244/sqft · 36% below area Est $647k · 36% under $258/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move right into this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome built in 2015, offering modern finishes, low-maintenance living, and an unbeatable location in Toms River's desirable Autumn Ridge community. Featuring updated flooring throughout, a bright open-concept floor plan, second-floor laundry, and both front and rear outdoor living spaces, this home is perfectly designed for today's lifestyle. The main level offers a spacious and inviting living area that flows seamlessly into the well-appointed kitchen, creating the ideal setting for both everyday living and entertaining.

Key facts

• Second-floor laundry
• Spacious living area
• Modern finishes

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• UPDATED FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACES
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($147/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $397k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Dover Elementary School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #513 of 1,303 statewide, top 40%, 394 students, 33% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,972/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 12476% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $397,244 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $647,209
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: -35.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
176 Liberty Bell Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,623 (-4%)	1mo	$499,000	$307	56
—	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+1%)	17mo	$302,500	$175	54
—	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-4%)	17mo	$1,410,144	$861	50
—	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-2%)	22mo	$540,000	$325	49
1803 Old Freehold Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,862 (+10%)	10mo	$599,900	$322	46
1247 Silverton Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-8%)	21mo	$750,000	$480	40
—	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-9%)	22mo	$500,000	$324	38
—	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (-6%)	22mo	$545,000	$341	37
—	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,886 (+11%)	21mo	$495,000	$262	35
—	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,457 (-14%)	18mo	$335,000	$230	34
1916 Powder Horn Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,552 (-9%)	19mo	$682,000	$439	32
—	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (-12%)	20mo	$950,000	$638	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-66,249
• Equity at exit: $61,878

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-55,795
• Equity at exit: $35,882

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $374,900 ($246/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +54.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,225/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$258
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$834
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,957

Max offer price $415,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $156	+0% $12	+5% $-131	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-145	+0% $12	+5% $169	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $118	base $12	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1923 Whitesville Rd Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1576	$3,750	$2.38	66d	1	0.84mi
2001 Rio Grande Dr #1701 Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.5	1936	$3,200	$1.65	53d	1	0.92mi
803 Mississippi St #1503 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.5	1696	$3,150	$1.86	0d	1	0.96mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1634	$5,391	$3.30	0d	28	1.08mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee ($258) covering lawn maintenance and snow removalCommon area amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveStoveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two on second level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lightingBlinds/shadesLight fixtures
• Laundry & utility: Second-level laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $415,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $415,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $415,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-08-03
   days on market $415,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-07-31
   days on market $415,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-07-30
   days on market $415,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-07-28
   days on market $415,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-07-26
   days on market $415,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $415,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $415,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $415,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $415,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $415,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $415,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $415,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $415,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $415,000 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $415,000 Active 32 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $415,000 Active 31 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $415,000 Active 30 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $415,000 Active 29 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $415,000 Active 28 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $415,000 Active 27 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $415,000 Active 25 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $415,000 Active 24 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $415,000 Active 23 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $415,000 Active 22 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $415,000 Active 21 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $415,000 Active 20 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $415,000 Active 19 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $415,000 Active 18 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $415,000 Active 17 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $415,000 Active 16 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $415,000 Active 15 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $415,000 Active 14 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $415,000 Active 12 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $415,000 Active 10 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $415,000 Active 9 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $415,000 Active 6 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $415,000 Active 5 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $415,000 Active 4 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $415,000 Active 3 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on marketlisting id $415,000 Active 1 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $415,000 Active 55 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $415,000 Active 54 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $415,000 Active 53 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $415,000 Active 50 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $415,000 Active 49 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $415,000 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $415,000 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$6,225
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,814
• − Management: −$3,814
• − HOA: −$3,096
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$6,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,602
• After-tax cash flow: $1,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,500–$25,500 screening

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome in Toms River, NJ, offers a bright, open layout with updated flooring and modern kitchen. It is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed for optimal resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary North Dover Elementary School F NJ #513/1,303 Nat'l #20,819/41,679 Middle Toms River Intermediate School North F NJ #265/431 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Toms River High School North F NJ #210/399 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee ($258) covering lawn maintenance and snow removalCommon area amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveStoveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two on second level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lightingBlinds/shadesLight fixtures
• Laundry & utility: Second-level laundry

Price history

-99.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed for Rent $3,300 MOMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $415,000 MOMLS
• 2026-06-10 Rental Removed $3,300 MOMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $3,300 MOMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed for Rent $3,500 MOMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $415,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $419,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $419,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-01-11 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $429,999 MOMLS
• 2022-07-07 Sold (MLS) $415,000 MOMLS
• 2022-04-04 Pending — MOMLS
• 2022-04-01 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2022-04-01 Pending — MOMLS
• 2022-03-31 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2022-03-26 Listed $325,000 MOMLS
• 2022-03-24 Coming Soon $325,000 MOMLS