300 Out Yonder #178

Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$189,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,321 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,785/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$448
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-402/mo
• Annual: $-4,821/yr
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.11%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (5.5% below list).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 35% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?