300 Out Yonder #178 · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$189,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,321 sqft · Condo public records · 217 Days on market

Built 1973 $143/sqft · 27% below area Est $258k · 27% under $448/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$22k Price Improvement! Horseshoe Bay Condo with Lake LBJ View! New interior paint! The hard tile flooring throughout is in excellent condition. New electric range. New smoke detectors. HVAC replaced in 2021. Water heater replaced in 2017 but lightly used. Has over the range microwave, large refrigerator, dishwasher, stainless double sink, bonus stainless bar fridge with ice maker. Mirrored bar top. Track & recessed lighting. Dimmable LED light bulbs in all fixtures. Wood burning fireplace. Property is vacant and in great condition overall. Clear view of Lake LBJ from back patio which was recently re-stained & sealed. North facing. Desirable top floor, corner unit so there are no neighbors on one side. Large, oversized dining window overlooks the corner of Out Yonder & Poker Chip. (This area can be converted to a deck area and double doors. Ask listing agent to show you photos of other units. ) Property is turn-key and is ready for a tenant or new owner. Would make a great second property or summer condo. Less than 5 minutes from the Horseshoe Bay Resort Hotel & Marina on Lake LBJ. 4 World Class Golf Courses nearby. Laundry room. Covered car port. Plenty of parking. This is a very desirable unit because of the view, its interior layout, and location in the building. No interior stairs! Will make a great lock & leave condo with Lake View or add your updates to the kitchen & bathrooms. Finding a condo in this great of condition with an updated HVAC and a view of Lake LBJ at this price will be difficult to find again. Don't let this one pass you by! STR Allowed.

Key facts

• $448 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $189,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$258,265) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 35% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,035 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.11%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,265
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -26.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,218
• Equity at exit: $63,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,049
• Equity at exit: $84,616

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1236
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,531/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$448
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,294

Max offer price $118,035

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-295	-5% $-348	+0% $-402	+5% $-455	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-543	-5% $-472	+0% $-402	+5% $-331	+10% $-261
Rate	-1.0pp $-307	-0.5pp $-354	base $-402	+0.5pp $-451	+1.0pp $-501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	25d	1	0.04mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	45d	1	0.04mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	45d	1	0.06mi
307 Out Yonder #8 Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.5	884	$1,599	$1.81	45d	1	0.08mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	25d	1	0.32mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,224	$1.27	25d	2	0.32mi
307 Crestview Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,800	$1.45	0d	1	0.50mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	14d	1	0.56mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.61mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	45d	1	0.61mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	14d	1	0.66mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.0	1070	$1,650	$1.54	45d	1	0.66mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	45d	1	0.67mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	12d	1	0.68mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	25d	1	0.71mi
906 Hi Cir N Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.74mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	45d	1	0.76mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	25d	1	0.92mi
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	25d	1	1.05mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	45d	1	1.06mi
403 Island Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1875	$4,300	$2.29	45d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $448 · $5,376/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 197 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 196 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 195 DOM
18. 2026-02-23
    status Active 1621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1621 chars)

    $22k Price Improvement! Horseshoe Bay Condo with Lake LBJ View! New interior paint! The hard tile flooring throughout is in excellent condition. New electric range. New smoke detectors. HVAC replaced in 2021. Water heater replaced in 2017 but lightly used. Has over the range microwave, large refrigerator, dishwasher, stainless double sink, bonus stainless bar fridge with ice maker. Mirrored bar top. Track & recessed lighting. Dimmable LED light bulbs in all fixtures. Wood burning fireplace. Property is vacant and in great condition overall. Clear view of Lake LBJ from back patio which was recently re-stained & sealed. North facing. Desirable top floor, corner unit so there are no neighbors on one side. Large, oversized dining window overlooks the corner of Out Yonder & Poker Chip. (This area can be converted to a deck area and double doors. Ask listing agent to show you photos of other units. ) Property is turn-key and is ready for a tenant or new owner. Would make a great second property or summer condo. Less than 5 minutes from the Horseshoe Bay Resort Hotel & Marina on Lake LBJ. 4 World Class Golf Courses nearby. Laundry room. Covered car port. Plenty of parking. This is a very desirable unit because of the view, its interior layout, and location in the building. No interior stairs! Will make a great lock & leave condo with Lake View or add your updates to the kitchen & bathrooms. Finding a condo in this great of condition with an updated HVAC and a view of Lake LBJ at this price will be difficult to find again. Don't let this one pass you by! STR Allowed.

19. 2018-04-20
    historical
20. 2018-04-20
    historical
21. 2018-04-20
    historical
22. 2018-04-20
    historical
23. 2017-10-05
    listed $139,900
24. 2017-10-05
    listed $139,900
25. 2017-09-29
    listed $139,900
26. 2017-09-29
    listed $139,900
27. 2011-05-31
    soldstatus
28. 2011-05-25
    soldstatus
29. 2011-04-15
    listed $69,000
30. 1999-12-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,531 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,531 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$3,531
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − HOA: −$5,376
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$7,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,906
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+102.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2018-04-20 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2018-04-20 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2018-04-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-04-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-10-05 Listed $139,900 LERA
• 2017-10-05 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2017-09-29 Listed $139,900 LERA
• 2017-09-29 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2011-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-05-25 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2011-04-15 Listed $69,000 Unlock MLS
• 1999-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,531 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.