1854 Pagel Ave

Lincoln Park, MI 48146

$154,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,422/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $35/mo
• Annual: $419/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($419/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (8.2% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $142k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#82 in MI, #1,720 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Lincoln Park School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #440 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James Foote School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,110 of 1,397 statewide, top 81%, 300 students, 92% FRL); Lincoln Park Middle School (math 12% / reading 35%, grade F, #399 of 493 statewide, top 81%, 1,105 students, 86% FRL); Lincoln Park High School (math 5% / reading 33%, grade F, #630 of 713 statewide, top 88%, 1,367 students, 79% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 287% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $155k implies a 343% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.