1854 Pagel Ave · Lincoln Park, MI 48146

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1946 3,920 sqft lot Est $181k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT INVESTMENT IN THE CITY OF LINCOLN PARK!! COME TAKE A LOOK AT THIS 3 BEDROOM BUNGALOW !! FEATURING 1 FULL BATH, NICE SIZE LIVING ROOM & KITCHEN W/ FENCED BACKYARD. DON'T MISS THE OPPORTUNITY!!Cash offers only. PROPERTY SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION. BUYER AND BUYERS AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFO.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1946

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (assumed from public water and standard city property); Natural gas; Electric service for central A/C and forced air
• Home design: Residential 1-1/2 story; Built in 1946; Entry-level main living areas
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Paved street frontage; 40' frontage; Subdivision: Lincoln Homes Sub

Interior

• Kitchen: Entry-level kitchen (approx. 11 x 17)
• Bedrooms: Two entry-level bedrooms (9 x 11 and 11 x 10); One second-floor bedroom (approx. 14' width)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on entry level (approx. 7 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central A/C; Natural gas heat
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement available for utilities/laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($419/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#82 in MI, #1,720 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Lincoln Park School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #440 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James Foote School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,110 of 1,397 statewide, top 81%, 300 students, 92% FRL); Lincoln Park Middle School (math 12% / reading 35%, grade F, #399 of 493 statewide, top 81%, 1,105 students, 86% FRL); Lincoln Park High School (math 5% / reading 33%, grade F, #630 of 713 statewide, top 88%, 1,367 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 287% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $155k implies a 343% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $142,187 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1415 Richmond Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-2%)	2mo	$165,000	$146	69
1644 Stewart Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+10%)	4mo	$155,000	$121	66
1829 Alard Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-12%)	1mo	$206,000	$201	66
1311 Gregory St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-3%)	1mo	$145,900	$129	64
1453 Buckingham Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,221 (+5%)	5mo	$140,000	$115	64
2148 Meyer Ct	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-14%)	0mo	$219,900	$220	62
2121 Buckingham Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-13%)	4mo	$159,900	$158	61
2071 Meyer Ct	0.25mi	3/1.5	999 (-14%)	2mo	$190,000	$190	61
2366 Progress Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-4%)	3mo	$145,000	$129	57
2359 Detroit Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-7%)	1mo	$196,000	$181	55
1670 Michigan Blvd	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,211 (+4%)	4mo	$189,000	$156	55
2162 Leblanc St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,335 (+15%)	3mo	$135,000	$101	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-20,442
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,620
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48146

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,538/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $79	+0% $35	+5% $-9	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $-21	+0% $35	+5% $91	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $74	base $35	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2235 Moore Rd Unit 1 Lincoln Park, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	26d	1	0.42mi
1343 Pagel Ave Unit 2-Upper Lincoln Park, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	19d	1	0.62mi
9725 Fox Ave Allen Park, MI	3.0	1.5	940	$1,850	$1.97	45d	1	0.66mi
1760 Saint Johns Blvd Apt 14 Lincoln Park, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	26d	1	0.82mi
1750 Saint Johns Blvd Unit 17 Lincoln Park, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,025	$1.37	26d	1	0.82mi
11400 Fordline St Allen Park, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	880	$1,400	$1.59	0d	1	0.95mi
4163 Burns Ave Lincoln Park, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	3d	1	1.00mi
9814 Quandt Ave Allen Park, MI	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	45d	1	1.11mi
1552 Hanover St Lincoln Park, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	26d	1	1.24mi
9725 Ruth Allen Park, MI	3.0	1.5	1110	$1,800	$1.62	4d	1	1.32mi
854 Harrison Blvd Lincoln Park, MI	3.0	1.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	45d	1	1.42mi
1130 21st St Wyandotte, MI	3.0	1.0	864	$1,420	$1.64	0d	1	1.43mi
750 Harrison Blvd Unit 5 Lincoln Park, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statuslisting id $154,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 695-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $154,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,538 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,538 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,538
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$2,163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$519
• After-tax cash flow: $939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Park School District
• NCES district ID: 2621600
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,486
• Composite: 19.93/100
• National rank: #8678
• State rank: #440 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lincoln Park

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1720

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln Park, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 39,257
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,257
• Household income: $58,616
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1142.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.25%
• Current HPI: 222.8545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+210.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Coming Soon $154,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-04-11 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-04-11 Sold (MLS) $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-03-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-03-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2018-02-14 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-02-14 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-02-09 Price Changed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-02-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2018-02-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-02-09 Price Changed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-02-08 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2017-12-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2017-10-19 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-10-19 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,538 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.