648 County Road 164

Boling, TX 77420

$370,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Active · 411 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,785/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$307
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-837/mo
• Annual: $-10,047/yr
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.93%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $103,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-837 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (51.8% below list).
• It's been on market 411 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (51.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,236 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Boling ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Wharton County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 411 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.