648 County Road 164 · Boling, TX 77420

$370,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 411 Days on market

Built 2017 11 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath, 2 green houses included Home on 10 Acres in Boling, TX – A Hunter’s Paradise! Agriculture exempt land low taxes. Escape to the quiet countryside to this active farm with this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 10 sprawling acres with 2 small ponds in Boling, Texas. This 100% fenced off private property offers the perfect blend of comfort and outdoor living. The land is teeming with wildlife and the views from the hunting tree stand which comes included are amazing to hunt deer frequently seen roaming the grounds—ideal for nature lovers or hunting enthusiasts all farm animals on farm can be included. New roof installed 2024, New home side skirting, New Patio, new flooring in rooms.

Key facts

• Wildlife
• 10 acres
• Partially wooded

Tags

• 10 ACRES
• PARTIALLY WOODED
• WILDLIFE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-837 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (51.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (51.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,236 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Boling ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Wharton County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 411 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,454 (51.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 411 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.93%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 17.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-581
• Equity at exit: $175,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $62,350
• Equity at exit: $277,170

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77420

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 17.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,844

Max offer price $222,089

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-628	-5% $-733	+0% $-837	+5% $-942	+10% $-1,047
Rent	-10% $-978	-5% $-908	+0% $-837	+5% $-767	+10% $-696
Rate	-1.0pp $-651	-0.5pp $-743	base $-837	+0.5pp $-933	+1.0pp $-1,031

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $370,000 Active 411 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $370,000 Active 410 DOM
3. 2026-03-26
   price $370,000 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath, 2 green houses included Home on 10 Acres in Boling, TX – A Hunter’s Paradise! Agriculture exempt land low taxes. Escape to the quiet countryside to this active farm with this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 10 sprawling acres with 2 small ponds in Boling, Texas. This 100% fenced off private property offers the perfect blend of comfort and outdoor living. The land is teeming with wildlife and the views from the hunting tree stand which comes included are amazing to hunt deer frequently seen roaming the grounds—ideal for nature lovers or hunting enthusiasts all farm animals on farm can be included. New roof installed 2024, New home side skirting, New Patio, new flooring in rooms.

4. 2026-02-09
   price $390,000 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath, 2 green houses included Home on 10 Acres in Boling, TX – A Hunter’s Paradise! Agriculture exempt land low taxes. Escape to the quiet countryside to this active farm with this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 10 sprawling acres with 2 small ponds in Boling, Texas. This 100% fenced off private property offers the perfect blend of comfort and outdoor living. The land is teeming with wildlife and the views from the hunting tree stand which comes included are amazing to hunt deer frequently seen roaming the grounds—ideal for nature lovers or hunting enthusiasts all farm animals on farm can be included. New roof installed 2024, New home side skirting, New Patio, new flooring in rooms.

5. 2025-11-13
   price $399,999 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath, 2 green houses included Home on 10 Acres in Boling, TX – A Hunter’s Paradise! Agriculture exempt land low taxes. Escape to the quiet countryside to this active farm with this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 10 sprawling acres with 2 small ponds in Boling, Texas. This 100% fenced off private property offers the perfect blend of comfort and outdoor living. The land is teeming with wildlife and the views from the hunting tree stand which comes included are amazing to hunt deer frequently seen roaming the grounds—ideal for nature lovers or hunting enthusiasts all farm animals on farm can be included. New roof installed 2024, New home side skirting, New Patio, new flooring in rooms.

6. 2025-07-09
   price $410,000 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath, 2 green houses included Home on 10 Acres in Boling, TX – A Hunter’s Paradise! Agriculture exempt land low taxes. Escape to the quiet countryside to this active farm with this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 10 sprawling acres with 2 small ponds in Boling, Texas. This 100% fenced off private property offers the perfect blend of comfort and outdoor living. The land is teeming with wildlife and the views from the hunting tree stand which comes included are amazing to hunt deer frequently seen roaming the grounds—ideal for nature lovers or hunting enthusiasts all farm animals on farm can be included. New roof installed 2024, New home side skirting, New Patio, new flooring in rooms.

7. 2025-04-15
   listed $420,000 Active 765-char remark

   Show marketing remark (765 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath, 2 green houses included Home on 10 Acres in Boling, TX – A Hunter’s Paradise! Agriculture exempt land low taxes. Escape to the quiet countryside to this active farm with this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 10 sprawling acres with 2 small ponds in Boling, Texas. This 100% fenced off private property offers the perfect blend of comfort and outdoor living. The land is teeming with wildlife and the views from the hunting tree stand which comes included are amazing to hunt deer frequently seen roaming the grounds—ideal for nature lovers or hunting enthusiasts all farm animals on farm can be included. New roof installed 2024, New home side skirting, New Patio, new flooring in rooms.

8. 2025-04-04
   listed $420,000 Active
9. 2025-04-03
   historical
10. 2025-03-13
    historical
11. 2025-03-13
    historical
12. 2025-03-13
    listed $420,000 Active
13. 2023-08-22
    historical
14. 2023-03-04
    price $350,000
15. 2022-09-19
    price $399,900
16. 2022-08-28
    price $415,000
17. 2022-08-09
    listed $440,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,034 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,771 · $564/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,737/yr (+$478/mo · 555.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$2,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$17,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,124
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boling ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810780
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,007
• Composite: 34.14/100
• National rank: #5282
• State rank: #411 of 826 in TX

Livability — Boling

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1236
• US rank: #21639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,461

Population outlook (Wharton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,448 people
• By 2030: 42,726 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 43,042 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 43,368 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 44,962 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 44,510 · +4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 18% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wharton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.8% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Current HPI: 98.8276
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $370,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $390,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $399,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $410,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Listed $420,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $420,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $420,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-04 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-19 Price Changed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2022-08-28 Price Changed $415,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Listed $440,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,034 · -10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.