515 Tallowood Rd #4

Houston, TX 77024

$239,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,336/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$502
• HOA: −$705
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-615/mo
• Annual: $-7,377/yr
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.02%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-615 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (45.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (2.3% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?