515 Tallowood Rd #4 · Houston, TX 77024

$239,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Condo public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1970 $186/sqft · at area comps Est $244k · at est. $705/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Memorial West Gem – Updated 2BD/2BA in Spring Branch ISD! Discover this move-in ready townhome in well-maintained Tallowood Townhomes, a manicured complex in prime Memorial West. First floor: Bright open living with new luxury plank vinyl flooring, living room, dining area open to kitchen, full bath, and large walk-in storage closet. Abundant natural light throughout. Upstairs: Two spacious bedrooms with fresh engineered wood floors. Primary features large walk-in closet; shared full bath with jetted tub. Includes: Stackable W/D, refrigerator, 2 assigned parking spaces (1 covered, 1 open). This unit backs up directly to the community pool for ultimate convenience and relaxation! HOA covers electricity, gas, water, trash, and all exterior maintenance – true low-maintenance living! Prime Memorial West spot near Memorial City Mall, CityCentre, parks, top schools in acclaimed Spring Branch ISD. Perfect for families or professionals. Turnkey & fabulous – schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Bright open living
• Large walk-in closet
• Updated townhome

Tags

• UPDATED TOWNHOME
• BRIGHT OPEN LIVING
• LARGE WALK-IN STORAGE CLOSET
• FRESH ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• BACKS UP TO COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-615 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (45.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 310 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,404 (45.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.02%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,203
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -2.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.92% appreciation · 4.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $48,372
• Equity at exit: $164,385

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $181,596
• Equity at exit: $311,144

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77024

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 310
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$402 /mo · $4,828/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$705
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,114

Max offer price $130,404

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-479	-5% $-547	+0% $-615	+5% $-682	+10% $-750
Rent	-10% $-799	-5% $-707	+0% $-615	+5% $-522	+10% $-430
Rate	-1.0pp $-494	-0.5pp $-554	base $-615	+0.5pp $-677	+1.0pp $-740

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 Tallowood Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1362	$2,000	$1.47	6d	2	0.09mi
701 Attingham Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,389	$1.98	12d	1	0.30mi
801 Town & Country Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1123	$2,502	$2.23	2d	15	0.59mi
12905 Boheme Dr Unit AOTB2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,889	$1.54	25d	1	0.60mi
10401 Town & Country Way Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,376	$2.23	3d	1	0.62mi
150 W Sam Houston Pkwy N Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$3,375	$3.17	0d	28	0.63mi
10409 Town & Country Way Unit 1355 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	882	$1,192	$1.35	44d	1	0.64mi
10409 Town & Country Way Unit 1-225 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	939	$1,339	$1.43	44d	1	0.64mi
10409 Town & Country Way Unit 11402 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1390	$1,819	$1.31	44d	1	0.64mi
10401 Town & Country Way Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,384	$2.24	6d	1	0.64mi
10401 Town & Country Way Unit 10424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,408	$2.26	11d	1	0.64mi
10411 Town & Country Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1866	$3,512	$1.88	20d	1	0.64mi
10411 Town & Country Way Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1659	$3,591	$2.16	25d	1	0.64mi
10411 Town & Country Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1866	$3,512	$1.88	44d	1	0.64mi
10401 Town and Country Way Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,248	$2.15	44d	1	0.64mi
10401 Town and Country Way Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,248	$2.15	25d	1	0.64mi
156 W Sam Houston Pkwy N Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1031	$1,717	$1.67	44d	1	0.65mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$3,321	$2.20	3d	1	0.66mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$2,384	$1.58	3d	1	0.66mi
10402 Town & Country Way Unit 10417 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	948	$1,978	$2.09	14d	1	0.66mi
10402 Town & Country Way Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,641	$2.07	11d	1	0.66mi
10402 Town & Country Way Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,617	$2.05	6d	1	0.66mi
10402 Town & Country Way Unit 10425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1486	$2,965	$2.00	44d	1	0.66mi
10402 Town & Country Way Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,609	$2.04	3d	1	0.66mi
10408 Town & Country Way Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1098	$2,285	$2.08	44d	1	0.68mi
817 Citycentre Way Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1305	$2,309	$1.77	44d	1	0.72mi
408 S Gessner Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$3,248	$2.15	25d	1	0.73mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 23028 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1412	$1,721	$1.22	44d	1	0.74mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$2,392	$1.58	6d	1	0.74mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 815 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	900	$1,764	$1.96	15d	1	0.74mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 833 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$3,353	$2.22	11d	1	0.74mi
800 Town and Country Blvd Unit 837 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1511	$2,416	$1.60	11d	1	0.74mi
909 Town and Country Blvd Unit 12634 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1256	$1,798	$1.43	44d	1	0.90mi
909 Town and Country Blvd Unit 325 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	906	$1,112	$1.23	44d	1	0.90mi
878 Bettina Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,740	$1.45	25d	1	0.92mi
905 Town and Country Blvd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$2,503	$2.07	6d	1	0.93mi
905 Town and Country Blvd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$2,527	$2.09	11d	1	0.93mi
905 Town and Country Blvd Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$2,495	$2.06	3d	1	0.93mi
905 Town and Country Blvd Unit 942 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1350	$2,802	$2.08	44d	1	0.93mi
10300 Katy Fwy Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$1,961	$2.17	2d	23	0.96mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $705 · $8,460/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashgaselectricexterior maint.poolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    price $239,000 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Prime Memorial West Gem – Updated 2BD/2BA in Spring Branch ISD! Discover this move-in ready townhome in well-maintained Tallowood Townhomes, a manicured complex in prime Memorial West. First floor: Bright open living with new luxury plank vinyl flooring, living room, dining area open to kitchen, full bath, and large walk-in storage closet. Abundant natural light throughout. Upstairs: Two spacious bedrooms with fresh engineered wood floors. Primary features large walk-in closet; shared full bath with jetted tub. Includes: Stackable W/D, refrigerator, 2 assigned parking spaces (1 covered, 1 open). This unit backs up directly to the community pool for ultimate convenience and relaxation! HOA covers electricity, gas, water, trash, and all exterior maintenance – true low-maintenance living! Prime Memorial West spot near Memorial City Mall, CityCentre, parks, top schools in acclaimed Spring Branch ISD. Perfect for families or professionals. Turnkey & fabulous – schedule your tour today!

15. 2026-01-29
    listed $249,900 Active 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Prime Memorial West Gem – Updated 2BD/2BA in Spring Branch ISD! Discover this move-in ready townhome in well-maintained Tallowood Townhomes, a manicured complex in prime Memorial West. First floor: Bright open living with new luxury plank vinyl flooring, living room, dining area open to kitchen, full bath, and large walk-in storage closet. Abundant natural light throughout. Upstairs: Two spacious bedrooms with fresh engineered wood floors. Primary features large walk-in closet; shared full bath with jetted tub. Includes: Stackable W/D, refrigerator, 2 assigned parking spaces (1 covered, 1 open). This unit backs up directly to the community pool for ultimate convenience and relaxation! HOA covers electricity, gas, water, trash, and all exterior maintenance – true low-maintenance living! Prime Memorial West spot near Memorial City Mall, CityCentre, parks, top schools in acclaimed Spring Branch ISD. Perfect for families or professionals. Turnkey & fabulous – schedule your tour today!

16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,828 · $402/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,828 · $402/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$4,828
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,243
• − Management: −$2,243
• − HOA: −$8,460
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$11,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,706
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Branch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841100
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,311
• Composite: 40.88/100
• National rank: #3624
• State rank: #215 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,288
• Household income: $136,149
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1144.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Asian 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.92%
• Current HPI: 256.8342
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,828 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.