10412 Neptune Ct

Waco, TX 76708

$286,530D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,394/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,503
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-89/mo
• Annual: $-1,066/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $80,228

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.