10412 Neptune Ct · Waco, TX 76708

$286,530

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $178/sqft · at area comps Est $296k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see our spacious Elgin floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas. With 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring approximately 1,612 square feet of living space. The floorplan has an appealing open concept designed to fit your needs. From the welcoming foyer that leads to the open concept kitchen and living room to the primary bedroom with an attractive attached bathroom that has a spacious walk-in closet. With the 2-car garage, you will find plenty of space for storage or parking. Start or end your day with the standard covered patio, where you can sit and enjoy the views of nature from the backyard. The kitchen features beautiful flat panel birch cabinets and granite countertops. Each of the spacious secondary bedrooms are carpeted and cozy. With easy access to the laundry room and the secondary bathroom. This stunning floorplan offers plenty of space is perfect for you and includes a smart home package to keep your home connected. Control and secure your home through the Qolsys smart panel, through your phone, or even with your voice. Talk to us today to learn more about the Elgin floorplan!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Smart home package
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SMART HOME PACKAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,402 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,095
• List price: $286,530
• Delta: -3.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5813 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,568 (-3%)	6mo	$301,065	$192	79
5613 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-6%)	5mo	$300,735	$199	68
10212 Neptune Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-12%)	1mo	$254,180	$180	67
10601 T Bury Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,683 (+4%)	7mo	$295,000	$175	64
5807 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (+11%)	6mo	$322,090	$181	61
10616 Whitney Trce	0.30mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+11%)	4mo	$329,999	$184	59
11204 Echo Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (-2%)	3mo	$279,900	$177	59
6513 Elephant Butte Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-6%)	2mo	$274,000	$180	57
10517 Rayburn Way	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,851 (+15%)	6mo	$349,900	$189	54
5701 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-15%)	7mo	$274,060	$200	52
5718 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-15%)	8mo	$272,760	$199	52
11225 Raider Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,695 (+5%)	6mo	$265,000	$156	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-59,070
• Equity at exit: $42,723

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-85,693
• Equity at exit: $24,774

Cash invested: $80,228 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,503
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,298/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,507

Max offer price $273,671

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $10	+0% $-89	+5% $-188	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-183	+0% $-89	+5% $6	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $-16	base $-89	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,632
• Closing costs: $8,596
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	23d	1	0.19mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	15d	1	0.71mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	45d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $286,530 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $286,530 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $286,530 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $286,530 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-05-05
   price $286,530 1120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1120 chars)

   Come see our spacious Elgin floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas. With 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring approximately 1,612 square feet of living space. The floorplan has an appealing open concept designed to fit your needs. From the welcoming foyer that leads to the open concept kitchen and living room to the primary bedroom with an attractive attached bathroom that has a spacious walk-in closet. With the 2-car garage, you will find plenty of space for storage or parking. Start or end your day with the standard covered patio, where you can sit and enjoy the views of nature from the backyard. The kitchen features beautiful flat panel birch cabinets and granite countertops. Each of the spacious secondary bedrooms are carpeted and cozy. With easy access to the laundry room and the secondary bathroom. This stunning floorplan offers plenty of space is perfect for you and includes a smart home package to keep your home connected. Control and secure your home through the Qolsys smart panel, through your phone, or even with your voice. Talk to us today to learn more about the Elgin floorplan!

6. 2026-04-09
   price $266,030 1120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1120 chars)

   Come see our spacious Elgin floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas. With 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring approximately 1,612 square feet of living space. The floorplan has an appealing open concept designed to fit your needs. From the welcoming foyer that leads to the open concept kitchen and living room to the primary bedroom with an attractive attached bathroom that has a spacious walk-in closet. With the 2-car garage, you will find plenty of space for storage or parking. Start or end your day with the standard covered patio, where you can sit and enjoy the views of nature from the backyard. The kitchen features beautiful flat panel birch cabinets and granite countertops. Each of the spacious secondary bedrooms are carpeted and cozy. With easy access to the laundry room and the secondary bathroom. This stunning floorplan offers plenty of space is perfect for you and includes a smart home package to keep your home connected. Control and secure your home through the Qolsys smart panel, through your phone, or even with your voice. Talk to us today to learn more about the Elgin floorplan!

7. 2026-04-04
   price $271,030 1120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1120 chars)

   Come see our spacious Elgin floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas. With 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring approximately 1,612 square feet of living space. The floorplan has an appealing open concept designed to fit your needs. From the welcoming foyer that leads to the open concept kitchen and living room to the primary bedroom with an attractive attached bathroom that has a spacious walk-in closet. With the 2-car garage, you will find plenty of space for storage or parking. Start or end your day with the standard covered patio, where you can sit and enjoy the views of nature from the backyard. The kitchen features beautiful flat panel birch cabinets and granite countertops. Each of the spacious secondary bedrooms are carpeted and cozy. With easy access to the laundry room and the secondary bathroom. This stunning floorplan offers plenty of space is perfect for you and includes a smart home package to keep your home connected. Control and secure your home through the Qolsys smart panel, through your phone, or even with your voice. Talk to us today to learn more about the Elgin floorplan!

8. 2026-04-01
   listed $286,530 Active 1120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1120 chars)

   Come see our spacious Elgin floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas. With 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring approximately 1,612 square feet of living space. The floorplan has an appealing open concept designed to fit your needs. From the welcoming foyer that leads to the open concept kitchen and living room to the primary bedroom with an attractive attached bathroom that has a spacious walk-in closet. With the 2-car garage, you will find plenty of space for storage or parking. Start or end your day with the standard covered patio, where you can sit and enjoy the views of nature from the backyard. The kitchen features beautiful flat panel birch cabinets and granite countertops. Each of the spacious secondary bedrooms are carpeted and cozy. With easy access to the laundry room and the secondary bathroom. This stunning floorplan offers plenty of space is perfect for you and includes a smart home package to keep your home connected. Control and secure your home through the Qolsys smart panel, through your phone, or even with your voice. Talk to us today to learn more about the Elgin floorplan!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,050
• − Property taxes: −$4,298
• − Insurance: −$1,433
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − Depreciation: −$8,335
• Taxable loss: −$5,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Waco, TX, is in good condition with a spacious floorplan and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a cosmetic upgrade to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $286,530 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $266,030 Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $271,030 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Listed $286,530 Zillow