8155 Cedar River Rd

Mancelona, MI 49659

$127,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 203 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,093/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $64/mo
• Annual: $768/yr
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $35,560

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($768/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (13.9% below list).
• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#105 in MI, #2,568 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mancelona Public Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #310 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Antrim County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Antrim County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $127k implies a 263% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.4% in Mancelona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.