8155 Cedar River Rd · Mancelona, MI 49659

$127,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 203 Days on market

Built 2000 4.00 ac lot $130/sqft · 14% below area Est $225k · 44% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential in this 4 bedroom , 2 bathroom 1500 sq ft. Fixer Upper Home that sets on 4.5 acres , this property offers plenty of space and fantastic upgrades. Perfect for anyone looking to customize a home to their own style. New roof in 2025, new well pump in 2025. New 1200sq ft pole barn , prepped with drain lines for a bathroom and kitchen. 576 sq ft detached garage. 30 amp and 50 amp RV hookups . Great for guests, storage or temporary living during renovations. This property is ready for someone to finish it out and build instant equity. With major mechanical updates and incredible outbuilding already in place, the hard work is already started. Now its your turn to complete the vision. Well, septic and power needs to be hooked up to the house.

Key facts

• New well pump
• 4.5 acres
• New roof

Tags

• 4.5 ACRES
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WELL PUMP
• NEW POLE BARN
• RV HOOKUPS
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($768/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.4% in Mancelona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#105 in MI, #2,568 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mancelona Public Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #310 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Antrim County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Antrim County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $127k implies a 263% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $109,324 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,896
• List price: $127,000
• Delta: -43.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Monroe St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+11%)	8mo	$155,000	$142	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-16,533
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,274
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49659

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $969/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,012

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $100	+0% $64	+5% $28	+10% $-8
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $21	+0% $64	+5% $107	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $96	base $64	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $127,000 Pending 203 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,000 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $127,000 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,000 Active 198 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,000 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $127,000 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $127,000 Active 192 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $127,000 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,000 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2025-11-21
    listed $127,000 Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Discover the potential in this 4 bedroom , 2 bathroom 1500 sq ft. Fixer Upper Home that sets on 4.5 acres , this property offers plenty of space and fantastic upgrades. Perfect for anyone looking to customize a home to their own style. New roof in 2025, new well pump in 2025. New 1200sq ft pole barn , prepped with drain lines for a bathroom and kitchen. 576 sq ft detached garage. 30 amp and 50 amp RV hookups . Great for guests, storage or temporary living during renovations. This property is ready for someone to finish it out and build instant equity. With major mechanical updates and incredible outbuilding already in place, the hard work is already started. Now its your turn to complete the vision. Well, septic and power needs to be hooked up to the house.

14. 2025-11-21
    listed $127,000 Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Discover the potential in this 4 bedroom , 2 bathroom 1500 sq ft. Fixer Upper Home that sets on 4.5 acres , this property offers plenty of space and fantastic upgrades. Perfect for anyone looking to customize a home to their own style. New roof in 2025, new well pump in 2025. New 1200sq ft pole barn , prepped with drain lines for a bathroom and kitchen. 576 sq ft detached garage. 30 amp and 50 amp RV hookups . Great for guests, storage or temporary living during renovations. This property is ready for someone to finish it out and build instant equity. With major mechanical updates and incredible outbuilding already in place, the hard work is already started. Now its your turn to complete the vision. Well, septic and power needs to be hooked up to the house.

15. 2009-04-29
    soldstatus $35,000
16. 2009-01-28
    soldstatus $25,000
17. 2008-05-05
    listed $29,900
18. 2006-07-01
    soldstatus $25,000
19. 2006-06-01
    soldstatus $75,086
20. 2006-05-08
    historical
21. 2006-04-13
    listed $134,900
22. 1998-08-24
    soldstatus $56,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$494/yr (+$41/mo · 51.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$969
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable loss: −$1,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$334
• After-tax cash flow: $1,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mancelona Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2622350
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,613
• Composite: 28.89/100
• National rank: #6639
• State rank: #310 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mancelona

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #2568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,226

Population outlook (Antrim County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,804 people
• By 2030: 20,814 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 18,394 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 15,981 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 11,712 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 7,651 · -64.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Antrim

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.8) · D 37.5% · R 61.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -23.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.8 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.79%
• Current HPI: 245.5937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+124.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Listed $127,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-21 Listed $127,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-28 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-05-05 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,086 Public Records
• 2006-05-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-04-13 Listed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1998-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $969 · -37.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.