440 Suffolk Dr

Ferris, TX 75125

$366,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,512 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,149/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,924
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-483/mo
• Annual: $-5,801/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $102,732

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $367k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (41.4% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#401 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucy Mae Mcdonald El (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 620 students, 83% FRL); Ferris J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 590 students, 79% FRL); Ferris H S (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,096 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 821 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.