566 Muhlenberg Ave

Oak Valley, NJ 08090

$325,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$663
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $976/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.07%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($976/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (4.6% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $310k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#276 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Deptford Township Public School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #326 of 472 in NJ (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Deptford Township Middle School (math 26% / reading 53%, grade F, #201 of 431 statewide, top 48%, 928 students, 31% FRL); Deptford Township High School (math 14% / reading 46%, grade F, #284 of 399 statewide, top 72%, 1,084 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $325k implies a 261% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Oak Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.