403 Commerce St

Fort Davis, TX 79734

$65,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $810/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $248/mo
• Annual: $2,981/yr
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.38%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($810 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,258 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ft Davis ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #942 of 1,141 in TX (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP.
• Jeff Davis County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.