381 King Rd

Ellaville, GA 31806

$95,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $987/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $183/mo
• Annual: $2,191/yr
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.24%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($987 rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#324 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Schooley County (rural): math 40% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #34 of 174 in GA (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Schley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Schley County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $95k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.