381 King Rd · Ellaville, GA 31806

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1972 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1 bath in Ellaville, GA.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($987 rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#324 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Schooley County (rural): math 40% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #34 of 174 in GA (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Schley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Schley County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $95k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.24%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $63,349
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $177,362
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31806

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $756

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $210	+0% $183	+5% $156	+10% $129
Rent	-10% $105	-5% $144	+0% $183	+5% $222	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $207	base $183	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Under Contract 35-char remark

   Show marketing remark (35 chars)

   3 bedroom, 1 bath in Ellaville, GA.

2. 2026-04-21
   price $95,000 35-char remark

   Show marketing remark (35 chars)

   3 bedroom, 1 bath in Ellaville, GA.

3. 2026-01-24
   listed $100,000 New 35-char remark

   Show marketing remark (35 chars)

   3 bedroom, 1 bath in Ellaville, GA.

4. 2023-12-11
   soldstatus $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $713 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$161/yr (+$13/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$948
• − Management: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$162
• After-tax cash flow: $2,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schooley County
• NCES district ID: 1304470
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,034
• Composite: 35.92/100
• National rank: #4805
• State rank: #34 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ellaville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #17252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,316

Population outlook (Schley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,714 people
• By 2030: 5,975 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 6,493 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 6,967 · +21.9%
• By 2075: 8,136 · +42.4%
• By 2100: 8,904 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 17% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Schley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.5) · D 18.7% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -44.5pp · 2024: -62.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.5 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+44.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.73%
• Current HPI: 200.7691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+84.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $95,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $100,000 GAMLS
• 2023-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $713 · +39.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.