13161 Harbor Dr

Morgan's Point Resort, TX 76502

$205,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $391/mo
• Annual: $4,696/yr
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (0.0% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $205k (0.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1114 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $205k implies a 1001% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.5% in Morgan's Point Resort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.