13161 Harbor Dr · Morgan's Point Resort, TX 76502

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2001 10,001 sqft lot Est $188k · 9% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy and spacious Mobile Home in quiet Lakeaire Homeowner`s Association neighborhood. Located in close proximity to Lake Belton. This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home also features a spacious kitchen and living room, beautiful garden tub in master bath and wood deck front porch. PROPERTY SOLD `AS-IS, WHERE-IS`.

Key facts

• Workshop building
• Community pool
• Bathroom upgrades

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO LAKE BELTON
• NEIGHBORHOOD BOAT RAMP
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• WORKSHOP BUILDING
• BATHROOM UPGRADES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Lakeaire Owners Association; Community amenities: boat facilities, playground, park, community pool

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; High speed internet available; Public sewer (also listed as not connected at lot)
• Home design: Single-story; Double wide mobile home; Resale
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition / shingle roof; Block and pillar/post/pier foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Storage; Workshop; Partial wood fencing; City lot, less than quarter acre; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (13 x 9.6); Bedroom 3 (12.4 x 9.9); Bedroom 4 (12.3 x 9.5)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric, one unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Garden tub / Roman tub; Separate shower; Kitchen and family room combo; Solid surface counters; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room / utility room; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (0.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.5% in Morgan's Point Resort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1114 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $205k implies a 1001% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,964

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13279 Deck Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	15mo	$215,000	$120	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-14,388
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,997
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1114
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $809/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,554

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $205,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $809 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,942/yr (+$245/mo · 363.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$809
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $1,379
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $4,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Morgan's Point Resort

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1890.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+206.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $205,000 CTXMLS
• 2020-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-11-19 Sold (MLS) $18,620 CTXMLS
• 2008-05-07 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2008-05-07 Listed $19,900 CTXMLS
• 2008-05-07 Listed $19,900 CTXMLS
• 2008-03-07 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2008-03-07 Listed $67,000 CTXMLS
• 2007-12-20 Listed $67,000 CTXMLS
• 2002-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $809 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.