22118 N Arrellaga Dr

Sun City West, AZ 85375

$424,900D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,816/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,228
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$237
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-657/mo
• Annual: $-7,882/yr
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.63%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $118,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-657 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (27.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#106 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,816/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 691% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.