22118 N Arrellaga Dr · Sun City West, AZ 85375

$424,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 2004 8,259 sqft lot $231/sqft · 20% below area Est $532k · 20% under $237/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER! BIG ENERGY COST SAVINGS WITH PRE-PAID SOLAR LEASE!! NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, NEW CEILING FANS and LIGHTING in KITCHEN AND MAIN AREAS. DON'T MISS OUT! Beautiful move-in ready home in Corte Bella, a sought-after gated golf course community offering resort-style amenities and an active lifestyle. This well-maintained home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a den, with a bright open great room floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. . The split floor plan offers added privacy. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and accessible walk-in shower, the guest bath features a tub/shower combo. Relax outdoors on the covered patio w/low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for AZ indoor-outdoor living.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Split floor plan
• Extended patio

Tags

• GREAT ROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WELL LAID OUT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS OUTDOOR LIVING AREA
• EXTENDED PATIO
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-577 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#106 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,917/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 691% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,712 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.82%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $532,013
• List price: $424,900
• Delta: -20.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22021 N Arrellaga Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+4%)	2mo	$474,900	$249	80
12958 W Rincon Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,837 (0%)	1mo	$445,000	$242	76
12939 W Micheltorena Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,904 (+4%)	3mo	$525,000	$276	68
22222 N Pedregosa Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	2,095 (+14%)	3mo	$572,000	$273	66
12911 W Santa Ynez Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	2,066 (+12%)	2mo	$549,000	$266	62
12901 W San Pablo Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	2,095 (+14%)	2mo	$505,000	$241	60
22728 N 123rd Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+2%)	2mo	$428,000	$227	56
12739 W Nogales Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,904 (+4%)	4mo	$490,000	$257	55
23013 N Giovota Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	2mo	$590,500	$352	54
23034 N Pedregosa Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	2,066 (+12%)	2mo	$535,000	$259	47
22829 N Los Gatos Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0	2,095 (+14%)	4mo	$615,000	$294	44
13239 W Micheltorena Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	2,095 (+14%)	2mo	$640,000	$305	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-93,258
• Equity at exit: $63,354

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-73,570
• Equity at exit: $36,738

Cash invested: $118,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85375

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,228
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,866/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$237
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,647

Max offer price $323,043

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-336	-5% $-456	+0% $-577	+5% $-697	+10% $-817
Rent	-10% $-807	-5% $-692	+0% $-577	+5% $-461	+10% $-346
Rate	-1.0pp $-363	-0.5pp $-469	base $-577	+0.5pp $-687	+1.0pp $-799

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,225
• Closing costs: $12,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12835 W Chapala Ct Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	2095	$4,000	$1.91	25d	1	0.28mi
12944 W Quinto Dr Sun City West, AZ	3.0	2.0	2095	$3,200	$1.53	44d	1	0.61mi
23134 N 126th Dr Sun City West, AZ	3.0	3.0	1878	$2,131	$1.13	6d	1	0.65mi
12910 W Junipero Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1636	$1,800	$1.10	13d	1	0.81mi
13428 W El Sueno Ct Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1812	$2,850	$1.57	2d	1	0.91mi
13452 W El Sueno Ct Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1378	$3,200	$2.32	2d	1	0.94mi
22212 N Cheyenne Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1669	$3,500	$2.10	20d	1	1.02mi
22816 N Las Positas Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1351	$4,500	$3.33	2d	1	1.03mi
13706 W Parada Dr Sun City West, AZ	3.0	2.0	2147	$3,600	$1.68	44d	1	1.22mi
11751 W Daley Ln Sun City, AZ	2.0	2.0	1712	$1,950	$1.14	6d	1	1.27mi
13714 W Caballero Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1794	$2,800	$1.56	2d	1	1.28mi
11980 W Dos Rios Dr Sun City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,850	$1.41	44d	1	1.35mi
13758 W Sola Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1351	$3,950	$2.92	2d	1	1.43mi
13755 W Nogales Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1660	$4,500	$2.71	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $237 · $2,844/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $424,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $424,900 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $424,900 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,900 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $424,900 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,900 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $424,900 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $424,900 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $424,900 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $435,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $435,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $435,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $435,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $435,000 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    price $435,000 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! BIG ENERGY COST SAVINGS WITH PRE-PAID SOLAR LEASE!! NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, NEW CEILING FANS and LIGHTING in KITCHEN AND MAIN AREAS. DON'T MISS OUT! Beautiful move-in ready home in Corte Bella, a sought-after gated golf course community offering resort-style amenities and an active lifestyle. This well-maintained home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a den, with a bright open great room floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. . The split floor plan offers added privacy. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and accessible walk-in shower, the guest bath features a tub/shower combo. Relax outdoors on the covered patio w/low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for AZ indoor-outdoor living.

17. 2026-04-10
    status Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! BIG ENERGY COST SAVINGS WITH PRE-PAID SOLAR LEASE!! NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, NEW CEILING FANS and LIGHTING in KITCHEN AND MAIN AREAS. DON'T MISS OUT! Beautiful move-in ready home in Corte Bella, a sought-after gated golf course community offering resort-style amenities and an active lifestyle. This well-maintained home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a den, with a bright open great room floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. . The split floor plan offers added privacy. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and accessible walk-in shower, the guest bath features a tub/shower combo. Relax outdoors on the covered patio w/low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for AZ indoor-outdoor living.

18. 2026-04-08
    historical 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! BIG ENERGY COST SAVINGS WITH PRE-PAID SOLAR LEASE!! NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, NEW CEILING FANS and LIGHTING in KITCHEN AND MAIN AREAS. DON'T MISS OUT! Beautiful move-in ready home in Corte Bella, a sought-after gated golf course community offering resort-style amenities and an active lifestyle. This well-maintained home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a den, with a bright open great room floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. . The split floor plan offers added privacy. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and accessible walk-in shower, the guest bath features a tub/shower combo. Relax outdoors on the covered patio w/low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for AZ indoor-outdoor living.

19. 2026-03-05
    price $450,000 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! BIG ENERGY COST SAVINGS WITH PRE-PAID SOLAR LEASE!! NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, NEW CEILING FANS and LIGHTING in KITCHEN AND MAIN AREAS. DON'T MISS OUT! Beautiful move-in ready home in Corte Bella, a sought-after gated golf course community offering resort-style amenities and an active lifestyle. This well-maintained home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a den, with a bright open great room floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. . The split floor plan offers added privacy. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and accessible walk-in shower, the guest bath features a tub/shower combo. Relax outdoors on the covered patio w/low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for AZ indoor-outdoor living.

20. 2026-02-12
    listed $469,900 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! BIG ENERGY COST SAVINGS WITH PRE-PAID SOLAR LEASE!! NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, NEW CEILING FANS and LIGHTING in KITCHEN AND MAIN AREAS. DON'T MISS OUT! Beautiful move-in ready home in Corte Bella, a sought-after gated golf course community offering resort-style amenities and an active lifestyle. This well-maintained home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a den, with a bright open great room floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. . The split floor plan offers added privacy. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and accessible walk-in shower, the guest bath features a tub/shower combo. Relax outdoors on the covered patio w/low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for AZ indoor-outdoor living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,866 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,866 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,801
• − Property taxes: −$2,866
• − Insurance: −$2,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,800
• − Management: −$2,800
• − HOA: −$2,844
• − Depreciation: −$12,361
• Taxable loss: −$14,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,502
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sun City West

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #14878

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City West, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 27,680
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,680
• Household income: $63,928
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.20%
• Current HPI: 239.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $435,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $450,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $469,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,866 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.