20405 Winfred Dr

Athens, AL 35671

$534,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,876 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,805
• Tax + insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-1,562/mo
• Annual: $-18,746/yr
• Cap rate: 2.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.52%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $149,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $535k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (51.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (60.8% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($503k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (60.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #4,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Limestone County (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 129 in AL (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.6% in Athens — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.